Are multi bets worth it?

The odds on multis For a multi involving four $1.20 shots, you get odds of ($1.20 x $1.20 x $1.20 x $1.20 =) $2.07. Most punters love those multis because on face value, they figure they're getting $2.07 about a $1.20 shot. They're not. The odds of that multi saluting are actually (83% x 83% x 83% x 83% =)

championbets.com.au - Multis: Why they're for mugs and why bookies love them - Champion Bets

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Multis… is there anything more popular with today’s punters?

Punters love multis because it gives them the chance of a big return.

But you know who loves multis even more? Bookies!

That’s because unfortunately, most punters fundamentally don’t understand odds.

The odds on multis

Because we’re smart punters, we understand that odds are merely an expression of probability. If we mark something a $1.20 chance, that’s because it’s an 83% cent chance of happening.

1 / $1.20 = 83%

So the true $1.20 chance will win 5 out of 6, and it’ll lose 1 out of 6. While many punters would consider a $1.20 chance a complete moral that would never lose, we know that’s not the case. It’ll lose one out of every six times. Take a multi of six $1.20 shots, and you get odds of ($1.20 x $1.20 x $1.20 x $1.20 x $1.20 x $1.20 =) $2.99

Most punters think they’re getting $2.99 about six absolute morals.

Or $2.99 about a $1.20 shot.

Of course, they’re not. They’re not morals. Odds are, one of those six will always lose. So shift your mindset on multis. You’re not getting some huge value on a $1.20 shot. You’re simply taking a $2.99 shot.

Value betting with multis

We know that the only way to truly make a profit when betting is to bet to value. To do that, you need to take odds that are better the true odds. We looked at $1.20 chances before. The only time you should back something at $1.20 is when it’s true price (as calculated by you, or one of our experts) is less than $1.20. If it’s rated, say, $1.15, then $1.20 is a value bet. Go for it! But if you’ve marked it $1.30, or $1.50, or more, then taking $1.20 will send you broke pretty quickly. You won’t win enough to cover your losses. Bookies rely on the fact that most people don’t truly understand odds, so will take bad odds most (or all) of the time. Rather than having a percentage edge on their bet, the bookies have an edge on them.

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And this is why bookies love multis so much. Multis simply multiply whatever edge you have – positive or negative. So when mug punters take a multi, they’re almost always multiplying their negative edge to make it even bigger.

Let’s look at the numbers…

If we rate our six tips at $1.20, then we know each of them is an 83% chance. Put them in a multi, and we get $2.99 – or a 33% chance. A mug punter will take bad odds – say, $1.15 – about one of these chances, which is an implied probability of 87%. So they have a negative edge of -4% (87% – 83%) on the market. That’s why they lose. But put the six of them in a multi and look what happens: $1.15 x $1.15 x $1.15 x $1.15 x $1.15 x $1.15 = $2.31, or a 43% chance. Their negative edge is now -10% (43% – 33%)! They’re taking -4% on individual bets, but in a multi it’s -10%. Bookies love that!

A positive edge?

The good news, however, is that the multiplication works both ways. If you have a positive edge on the market, that’s also compounded. Let’s say that because you’re a smart punter, you’re taking $1.30 about these tips individually. That’s an implied probability of 77%, which is an edge of +6% (77% – 83%). Do the same exercise again: $1.30 x $1.30 x $1.30 x $1.30 x $1.30 x $1.30 = $4.83, or a 21% chance. Your positive edge is now +12% (21% – 33%)! You’re getting +6% on individual bets, but plus 12% on the multi. A great edge! Leg Your rated price Taking unders Taking overs Price Odds Price Odds Edge Price Odds Edge 1 $1.20 83% $1.15 87% -4% $1.30 77% 6% 2 $1.20 83% $1.15 87% -4% $1.30 77% 6% 3 $1.20 83% $1.15 87% -4% $1.30 77% 6% 4 $1.20 83% $1.15 87% -4% $1.30 77% 6% 5 $1.20 83% $1.15 87% -4% $1.30 77% 6% 6 $1.20 83% $1.15 87% -4% $1.30 77% 6% Multi $2.99 33% $2.31 43% -10% $4.83 21% 13%

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Multis: The key learnings!

You have to recognise the true odds of your multi winning. The individual legs may be (for example) $1.20 shots, but the odds of all of them winning isn’t $1.20. A multi multiplies your edge on the market. If that’s negative, then it’ll be even worse. But if it’s positive, it’ll be even better. The old rule applies: make sure you’re getting value on every selection!

Same Game Multis

Same Game Multis are something relatively new. You never used to be able to take multis that involved related markets, such as different markets on the same game. So you couldn’t take a multi of your basketball team winning with the star player scoring 40+ points. Because they’re highly dependent… if that star does score 40 points, then the team is more likely to win and their actual odds should be shorter. Bookies saw that punters wanted to take these multis however, so they created the Same Game Multi. The problem is, it takes a lot of complex calculations to come up with the price. The bookies’ SGM model does that behind the scenes, so you can’t see the true prices they’re giving you on each leg. But a bookie is there to make money. It’s a very fair assumption – a certainty, really – that you’re getting bad odds.

Tread very carefully!

championbets.com.au - Multis: Why they're for mugs and why bookies love them - Champion Bets

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