Wager Mage
Wager Mage
Photo: Alex Brites
The parlay bet is a lot like Casey Anthony (or Michelle Rodriguez if you prefer), simultaneously very attractive and highly dangerous. For anybody unfamiliar with this bet type, a parlay is a combo bet with two or more wagers linked together. If any of the bets in the parlay lose, then the entire parlay loses.
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Read More »At a Las Vegas sportsbook, an 8-team parlay pays out at 150/1 which means $20 can quickly turn into $3,000. Even if you’re only hitting 1% of your 8-team parlays it would be a profitable strategy. It’s easy to see why bettors would be tempted by this prospect, but it’s fool’s gold. These parlays don’t pay out anywhere near the true odds of your wagers, as I’ll explain below: Let’s say you’re an unskilled bettor that hits on only 50% of your bets and you want to take a five-team parlay. If we multiply 0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5×0.5 we get 0.03125 or 3.125%. That means your expected payout would be (.03125 x $2000) – (0.96875 x $100) which simplifies to ($62.5 – $96.875) = -$34.375. In other words, for every $100 bet you can expect to lose $34.38 as compared to the expected loss of $9.09 for a single bet assuming standard -110 juice. Even at offshore sportsbooks, bettors would lose $21.85 for every $100 wagered on parlays. As it turns out, sportsbooks have made a fortune off parlays for years. According to the Nevada Gaming Control Board Gaming Revenue Reports, sportsbooks in Nevada boasted a nearly 30% hold on parlays between 1984 and 2015. In comparison, every other major sport has a hold below 5%. Year Football Basketball Baseball Parlay 1992 2.69% 2.04% 1.80% 17.26% 1993 3.55% 3.14% 2.06% 25.59% 1994 6.25% 3.19% 2.70% 37.69% 1995 3.13% 2.70% 0.86% 27.93% 1996 2.76% 2.84% 1.66% 27.57% 1997 3.39% 2.22% 2.56% 29.79% 1998 3.15% 3.82% 0.78% 23.20% 1999 5.07% 4.51% 0.63% 31.08% 2000 5.39% 4.27% 3.41% 32.07% 2001 5.76% 5.21% 3.50% 32.22% 2002 4.69% 5.91% 2.86% 32.81% 2003 5.91% 6.96% 3.20% 32.93% 2004 4.82% 5.60% 2.13% 33.27% 2005 3.84% 6.62% 5.63% 24.86% 2006 8.02% 7.27% 4.84% 30.89% 2007 6.25% 5.45% 4.80% 29.56% 2008 3.50% 5.89% 4.52% 31.36% 2009 4.45% 4.76% 4.38% 32.57% 2010 4.76% 4.74% 4.28% 33.50% 2011 3.30% 6.62% 3.52% 28.10% 2012 4.37% 4.91% 4.34% 23.33% 2013 4.98% 5.62% 4.27% 34.63% 2014 6.50% 4.89% 2.95% 36.83% 2015 4.86% 5.83% 4.39% 29.56% All 4.72% 4.86% 3.18% 29.91% Parlay bettors are essentially risking more with a lower probability of collecting, which is why we recommend a flat betting strategy Money management may be the most important discipline needed to be a successful sports bettor, yet it’s amazing how many bettors make irresponsible decisions with their bankroll. With a flat betting strategy, bettors should wager a consistent amount (typically between 2-4% of total bankroll) on every game.
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Read More »[easy-tweet tweet=”Sportsbooks in Nevada boasted a nearly 30% hold on parlays between 1984 and 2015.” user=”SportsInsights”] Flat betting will help you ride the ups and downs of sports investing and overcome the inevitable losing streak. It’s a strong alternative to chase systems, which often require bettors to place massive bets to recoup previous losses. It’s also worth noting that even if your picks go 4-1 on a 5-team parlay, the entire bet would lose. Instead of earning nearly three units for those wins, bettors would walk home down one unit. Flat betting may not provide the type of one-time payments that bettors desire, but it’s a smart, long-term strategy used by many professional sports bettors. Consistently betting parlays will cause wild fluctuations of your bankroll, which is why most professional bettors tend to avoid them. We constantly preach betting against the public, and fading teams that are receiving overwhelming support on parlays is a sure sign of “square” action. Sportsbook Insider subscribers are able to view parlay percentages along with spread, moneyline and over/under betting trends. Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.
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