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Are slot machines beatable?

As games that are not strategy-driven, most slot machines are not beatable in the long run. Banked bonus games offer an opportunity to get an edge, if you see that you're already part way toward triggering a bonus. There might be profit opportunity in games with progressive jackpots, but there's no certainty.

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HOW SLOTS CAN BE BOTH PROGRAMMED AND RANDOM

When a casino buys a slot machine from a manufacturer, it can choose from a variety of targeted payback percentages. The manufacturer might make the same game available in 87-, 89-, 91- and 93-percent versions, and it’s up to the operator to choose which works best in game mix and for its competitive position. That the games have targeted payback percentages in their programming leads to misconceptions from players. A common theme in my email over the last 20 years has been, “How can games be both programmed and random? The programming must keep them on track for the percentage.” The short answer is that slots are programmed for a target percentage in the same way table games are: Odds of the game are set so they will naturally lead to an expected payback percentage. A TABLE ANALOGY Let’s use roulette as an example, because the math is uncomplicated. A double-zero roulette wheel has 38 numbers – 0, 00 and 1 through 36. The odds against any specific number coming up on any spin are 37-1.

The casino pays only 35-1 on any winning single number.

The two-unit difference between 37-1 odds and 35-1 payoffs is kept by the house. Divide that two-unit difference by 38 possibilities and you get 0.0526, for a 5.26- percent house edge. In that way, roulette is “programmed” so that in the course of thousands of wagers, the house will keep 5.26 percent. Results can be random. The same number can turn up three or four or five times in a row. But over time, the odds of the game lead to that percent-edge. SLOT “WHEELS” What if instead of reels with symbols and results driven by a random number generator, we set up a slot-like game with slot-like payoffs by using a series of roulette-like wheels? Let’s say we line up three roulette-type wheels, each marked into 100 segments. We mark each segment with a slot symbol. Each wheel gets one 7, five bars, 10 cherries and so on.

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We have a dealer spin and drop a ball on each wheel.

The total number of three-wheel combinations is 100x100x100, or 1 million.

That’s the same number of possible combinations you’d get on a slot machine if the random number generator was working with sets 100 numbers for each reel. From there, it’s easy to calculate the number of possible combinations that have the ball landing in the same symbol on each wheel. For the 7, since there is only one on each wheel, it’s 1x1x1 – there is only one three-7s combination. For bars, it’s 5x5x5, or 125 out of the million total combinations. For cherries, it’s 10x10x10, or 1,000 three-cherry combos. Note that we’re not using computer software here. We’re using physical equipment, but it’s giving us the equivalent of “programmed” combinations and odds. That’s just how the odds work on modernized computerized slot machines. They don’t force a game to pay an exact percentage, they just let the normal odds of the game drive long-term results to an expected percentage, the same way table games do.

PROGRAMMED VS. RANDOM, FAQ

The notion that slots are both programmed and random can be difficult to fathom. Confusion over slot programming has jammed my email box for years. Here are some of the questions readers ask most often. A. “Random results” is not the same as saying “equal results.” A game doesn’t have to be programmed so that a jackpot symbol shows up as often as a blank space, or a bonus symbol as often as a cherry. The odds of the game are set so that blank spaces will show up more often than winning symbols and small winners will show up more often than big winners. On three-reel slots, that will lead to there being more losing spins than winners, and on five-reel video games it will lead to more “wins” for amounts less than the size of your bet than bigger winners. The programmer sets the odds of the game, and then lets random chance take its course. A. Streaks are a normal part of the probability of the game. Let’s take a three-reel game with a 12% hit frequency -- you’ll have a winner an average of once per 8.333 spins. On your first spin, there’s an 88% chance it’ll be a loser. There’s a 77% chance you’ll lose two in a row, 68% chance you’ll lose three in a row, and so on.

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At 20 in a row, there’s still a 7.8% chance of every spin being a loser. That’s easily within normal probability. Anyone playing a machine with a 12% hit frequency for very long will have streaks of 20 or more losses. A. Your choices do make a difference in pick’em-style bonus events, but not in any way you can predict or control. The programmer knows that over a very long time, the bonus even will yield an average payback. Let's make up a simple slots bonus event, in which you pick one of three symbols to reveal a bonus award. If you touch one symbol, you get 25 credits, if you touch a different one, you get 50, and if you touch the other you get 75. You don’t know which symbol hides each award, so your results are random. However, over a very long time, you’ll get each award about a third of the time, so will average 50 credits. The programmer can build that average into calculations for the payback percentage. You have a random result contributing to odds that drive paybacks into a long- term average – the same as on the reel-spinning part of the slot game, and the same way table games work.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

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