Wager Mage
Photo: Andrea Piacquadio
In the US casinos, you can only surrender your hand after the dealer peeks at her hole card when she shows an ace or ten-valued card, to determine if she has a blackjack. If she has blackjack, the surrender option is no longer available, and you will lose your entire bet (unless you also have a blackjack).
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Read More »One of the playing decisions available to land-based and online blackjack players in some (but not all) casinos is to surrender their hand. For the uninitiated, surrender works like this. After comparing your initial two-card hand against the dealer’s upcard, if you think your chances of winning the hand are not very good, you can forfeit playing your hand and surrender (or give up) half of the amount of your wager. If you decide to surrender, the dealer will remove half of your bet and then scoop up your initial two cards and place them in the discard tray. Most players disdain the surrender option because they much prefer to try to “win their hands,” rather than wimp out and surrender them. But as you will see shortly, surrender can be a smart play if you know which hands to surrender. Before I show you the surrender playing strategy, it’s important that you understand the math behind surrender. You know that when you surrender a hand you will lose 50% (or half) of your wager; therefore, it makes sense to surrender only those hands when your expected loss from playing the hand to a conclusion is greater than 50% (i.e., when your chances of winning are less than one out of four hands). The latter means that statistically if playing a hand has less than a 25% chance of winning (and consequently greater than 75% of losing), you will save money in the long run by surrendering the hand instead. Here’s a real-world example. Suppose you are dealt a 10 and 6 and the dealer’s upcard is a ten. This is the worst blackjack hand that you can get when you are playing. You have three choices on how to play the hand: hit, stand, or surrender. The percentages of the time that you will win or lose for each playing option are (assumes a six-deck game): Strategy Win Lose Loss per $100 Bet Hit 23.4% 76.6% $53.20 Stand 22.8% 77.2% $54.40 Surrender 50% of bet 50% of bet $50 The above percentages mean if you stand on your 16, you can expect to lose the hand 77.2% of the time and win only 22.8%; therefore, you can expect to lose $54.40 for every $100 bet on the hand. Hitting improves your outcome slightly; your expected loss is $53.20 per $100 bet. Think about this: When you surrender your 10-6 against a dealer 10 upcard, you will lose exactly 50% of your bet, meaning for every $100 wagered, your expectation is to lose $50. Now let me ask you this: is it better to lose $50, $53.20, or $54.40? (I hope you said only $50, which is why surrender is your best option for this hand.)
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