Wager Mage
Wager Mage
Photo: Jill Burrow
Sharp bettors tend to take underdogs and they tend to bet them early. Casual, recreational bettors tend to take favorites and they tend to bet them later in the week.
Drake handed out $1m worth of Bitcoin to his fans as part of Stake.com's live stream on Twitch, although the rapper had an evening to forget as he...
Read More »
Online games of chance are prohibited by law unless allowed by states since they are legally treated as gambling/betting. Games of Skill are exempt...
Read More »
The Color Red Anything red is considered a lucky thing to wear at a casino, so you better search your closet or go on a shopping spree. The best...
Read More »
Measures of spread include the range, quartiles and the interquartile range, variance and standard deviation.
Read More »The closing line has moved towards the favorite in 49.1% of all games over the past three seasons, which shows that this trend continues to ring true. However, one interesting observation was that public betting had surprisingly limited impact on line movement. Since 2003, there have been 474 games in which one of the teams has received more than 75% of spread bets. In those games the line has only moved towards that team 228 times (48.10%), away from that team 116 times (24.47%), and remained unchanged 130 times (27.43%). Although this indicates that one-sided public betting has minimally affected the spread, it doesn’t necessarily disprove the value of betting against the public. As we mentioned earlier, oddsmakers are very skilled at anticipating bettors’ behavior and shading their opening lines to account for the influx of public money on one side. They know which teams will attract public money, and these shaded lines create excellent value for any contrarian bettors who are willing to take an unpopular viewpoint. My research found that teams receiving more than 75% of spread bets have gone 215-259 ATS (45.4%) with -51.8 units lost. By betting against (fading) those popular teams, contrarian bettors would have actually earned +30.71 units with a 6.5% return on investment (ROI). When the line is artificially inflated and gets worse for the public side, that ROI nearly doubles from 6.5% to 12.6%. NFL lines are typically released on Sunday evening when the late games are still in play, and sharp bettors will typically hammer those lines immediately if there’s an obvious mistake made by the oddsmakers. However, most sharp bettors prefer spending the necessary time to prepare by studying game film, tweaking their models and avoiding any surprising mid-week injuries. By waiting until later in the week to place your wager, you can ensure that you have all the necessary information to make smarter bets. Bettors also have to be aware of buy-back, particularly around key numbers like 3 or 7, which are the most common margins of victory in the NFL. If a team opens as a 6.5-point favorite and receives overwhelming public support, many sharp sportsbooks will be hesitant to adjust the spread by a half-point because they know sharp bettors are waiting to pounce on the underdog at plus-seven. That’s why it’s important to have access to advanced tools like the line watcher. I wanted to confirm these findings so I reached out to Scott Cooley, an Odds Consultant for Bookmaker.eu. “I do think it is wise to bet chalk early, but it has to be very early or you’ll miss a good number,” said Cooley. “There are some opportune times throughout the week where underdog plays seem to provide the most value. The middle of the week is when the favorites seem to peak so getting a dog then is often a good spot.”
Points spread betting: outcomes If bettors choose correctly and win, a sportsbook will pay the bettor in full amount based on the “price” of the...
Read More »
Well, to put it simply, the BDO no longer functions. The Professional Darts Corporation (PDC) was formed after a split from the British Darts...
Read More »Cooley elaborated that although it’s still preferable to take underdogs late, you can’t wait until the last possible moment. “Late is good but you can’t wait until right before kickoff because that half hour window is usually when the value players start to take the dogs. So if you wait too late you’ll miss the good number.” Sharp bettors tend to take underdogs and they tend to bet them early. Casual, recreational bettors tend to take favorites and they tend to bet them later in the week. This isn’t a hard-and-fast edict, but it’s a decent rule of thumb. Historically the line has moved towards the favorite more often than it’s moved towards the underdog, so ultimately it’s fair to say that bettors should still take favorites early and ‘dogs late. The odds for popular teams like Dallas, Green Bay and New England are often shaded to account for public action, but sportsbooks don’t always shade their lines towards the favorite. It’s also worth pointing out that sharp players will bet throughout the week, which is why it’s important to monitor sharp money indicators like steam moves or reverse line movement. Have any questions for the staff at Sports Insights? Utilize our live chat to speak with a customer service representative or e-mail us at help@sportsinsights.com.
Pick a team with the best odds You should consider if the team is playing well, as well as whether or not it has a few star players in the team....
Read More »
The US government now holds more than 214,000 bitcoin (BTC), making up over 1% of the total capped bitcoin supply. Nov 9, 2022
Read More »
A 3-way bet is a bet on an event that has three possible outcomes: Team A wins, Team B wins, or a draw. The odds on a 3-way bet will always be...
Read More »
For this list, they focused on the positions from a variety of sports that are toughest to play from both a physical and technical standpoint. 7:...
Read More »
Promotion
Promotion
Promotion
Promotion
Promotion