Wager Mage
Photo: Anna Shvets
It's true that you should stand on 12 against any dealer's 4, 5, and 6 up card because of the dealer's high bust frequency (40%, 43%, and 42% respectively). But with a 2 or 3 up card showing, the dealer is not as weak as you think because the bust frequency is lower.
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Read More »Blackjack author Donald Schlesinger, creator of the Ultimate Strategy Cards that contain not only the traditional “total-dependent” strategy but also the advanced “composition-dependent strategy,” offers this explanation for the latter strategy of hitting 10-2 vs. 4. “By having just one ten-value card in your hand when you hold a 10-2, you slightly lower your chances of breaking with a hit just enough to tip the balance in favor of risking busting by drawing one more card, rather than standing. This effect, however, diminishes as the number of decks increases, because removing one ten out of 16 is a lot more dramatic than removing one ten out of 128 for an eight-deck game. Therefore, for six or fewer decks, it’s best to hit a 12 consisting of 10-2 against a dealer’s 4 up card, but in an eight-deck game, it’s best to stand.” Besides the 10-2 against a dealer 4, there are five more composition-dependent strategies for a total of 12, which I’ve summarized below.
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