Wager Mage
Photo: Andrea Piacquadio
There happens to be a 16 versus 10 exception in blackjack. If you've drawn at least once, so your 16 comprises three or more cards, stand rather than hit.
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Read More »o One card which would have caused you to bust and two which would improve your chances. Examples are 10-five-ace, nine-four-three, eight-four-four, and seven-five-four. Hands of over three cards may also total 16. These may have as many as two cards which would cause you to bust and two or more which would improve your chances - such as seven-six-two-ace. They may also have only a single instant loser, or none; examples are nine-four-two-ace and five-four-four-three, respectively. Eliminating at least one card which would improve the hand, and no more than three that would bust it, raises the proportion and corresponding probability of breakers to desirable cards still to be drawn. This biases the shoe slightly toward standing. The effect is weak, especially for three-card hands with only one in the range from ace to five. Also, a proper analysis would account for differences in withdrawing fives and fours rather than aces and deuces as well as implications of unavailable cards on the dealer's final result. But the expectation gap between hitting and standing on two-card 16 versus 10 starts small, so a minor probability shift reverses the optimum decision. Even taking away one coveted card along with three breakers suffices to make standing statistically better than hitting. And the influence of removal becomes stronger the greater the proportion of helpful to harmful cards absent from the remaining shoe. So, what of bettors who hit 16 against 10 with two-card hands but stand otherwise? Maybe they just have cold feet. Or a hunch that a biggie is due. A few may even know what they're doing. As the poet, Sumner A Ingmark, a counselor of caution who normally knows what he's eschewing, quaintly quipped:
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