How do I calculate my bet value?

A bet is a value bet if the following formula applies: Value = (Probability * Decimal odds) -1. If the value is 1.08 -1, then a value bet has been found as it is greater than 0.

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What is a Value Bet?

Learn how to select the right bets and ensure long-term profitability using the value betting technique. When setting the odds for an event, a bookmaker will look at the probability of a result taking place. This can be anything from who will win a football game to a tennis match or even who will be the next contestant eliminated in a reality TV show. The bookmakers have specialist staff who work the odds out. Sport in particular can be unpredictable and sometimes they underestimate the probability of something happening. This can result in them offering odds that some punters may consider to be too high. In this situation, you can consider that a situation has arisen where the bet you want to place is available at higher odds than it should be – a value bet.

A bet is a value bet if the following formula applies:

Value = (Probability * Decimal odds) -1. If the value is 1.08 -1, then a value bet has been found as it is greater than 0.

An example of a value bet

A tennis match between Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev. The odds are Nadal to win 1.5 and Medvedev 2.2 Looking at the current form of the match, you estimate that Nadal has a 75% chance of winning this match. The bookmaker’s opinion is the probability of the Spaniard winning is 66.67%. Therefore, your opinion is that the odds-on Nadal winning should be lower and the 1.5 offered is too high and therefore a value bet. You can see here, that even though Nadal is odds on to win and a fortune isn’t going to be won, it is still a value bet. If you want to find the best value bets, you'll need to calculate the likely probability for the events yourself. If your estimates are correct, you'll win your bets more often than the probabilities shown by the bookmakers' odds would seem to indicate, thus making a long-term profit. Always remember though that sport in particular is very unpredictable. So, the difficulty in making value bets consists of being able to calculate probabilities more accurately than the bookmakers. Bookmakers have a range of powerful tools at their disposal and, at first sight, this may seem like a hopeless task. But today, help is at hand! With SportyTrader, you have a range of profitable betting solutions at your fingertips! SportyTrader has developed mathematical models specifically for football and tennis. These models allow us to calculate reliable probabilities for the occurrence of a result. We also have a team of betting experts who will supply our readers with a steady flow of betting tips. They will do their best to find the value bets and hopefully help you get some good profits in the future.

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