Wager Mage
Wager Mage
Photo: Anastasia Shuraeva
In general, the value of a bet equals its probability multiplied by its decimal odds minus one. If the value after this calculation is greater than zero, then you have a value bet. A simple example – the standard coin toss has a 50% chance of landing on a particular side.
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Read More »The concept of value and the football betting industry are not stereotypically aligned with each other. However, those who really know the industry understand that value is the key to long term success in football oddsmaking. This can seem like a huge leap to the uninitiated. Finding value means that by definition you are looking at assets that have yet to prove themselves. You win by betting your hard earned coin on the teams that most people do not think have a chance to win. The best odds are made against people who do not know how to find value. Winners look like losers, and faith in the way that you prepare is essential. Having an intuition for value is essential as well. There is an art to value betting that even the most sophisticated mathematics cannot comprehend. However, it is always good to start with the math. This is how a value bet is defined at its core. In general, the value of a bet equals its probability multiplied by its decimal odds minus one. If the value after this calculation is greater than zero, then you have a value bet. A simple example – the standard coin toss has a 50% chance of landing on a particular side. If a bookie offers 2.10 odds to land on heads, the bet has value. Of course, betting on football is infinitely more complex than a coin toss, but the essential concept is the same. Probabilities for certain outcomes must be estimated. To be a successful football bettor, you must estimate likelihoods of probabilities better than the bookie. Like the best bookies, you are at an advantage when you specialize and stick with your strengths. The devil is in the details of the rulemaking between leagues. Once you hone your ability to find value in places that are familiar to you, you can take that skill set into less familiar territory. The second step in finding value is to understand the basics of probability. Learn implied probability. This calculation is easy – it equals the inverse of the decimal odds. Sticking with the above example of 2.10 odds on a simple coin toss, the implied probability would be 1/2.10, or 47.62%. The art in value finding is in setting your own odds. The secret to this art is to focus on the fixtures in any situation. There are always variables – free agents, weather conditions, and salary consideration – that can change at any time. However, there are certain aspects of each game that you can count on. Using those fixtures as your focus put yourself in the shoes of the bookmaker. From here, make odds that you would not be comfortable betting on. Yes – this “discomfort” tactic helps newer bettors set odds like a pro bookie. It is difficult to do, but it is great exercise that helps to find real value. Eventually, you can expand to full on predictive betting models. Make sure that you have access to the best free football betting tips to ensure that your hunt for value is directed properly. Having an established bookie is step two of this process. When everything is in order, you maintain your best chances of performing well.
However even if they win 50% of the time, the juice adds up and eats away any overall winnings, and when people lose they often become careless and...
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5 to 6 odds payout If you wager a bet on a 5/6 betting odds selection and you win, your total payout will be 1.83 which is your stake back plus...
Read More »Applies a predictive model to an unlabeled data set to predict classes or numeric values associated with individual records. The PREDICT command is not supported if you are running Analytics on a 32-bit computer.
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