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How do you pick an over-under?

A bet on the over means you think both teams will combine to score more goals, points, or runs than the total listed. Conversely, an under bet means you think there will be less than the total listed. It's that simple.

theathletic.com - What is the over/under in sports betting? - The Athletic

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There are three types of primary bets on a game between two teams: moneyline, spread, and total (also commonly referred to as over/under). While moneyline and spread deal with which team won, the total only cares about how much or how little scoring happened between the two teams. When looking at listed odds for a game, this is represented as total, over/under, and sometimes shortened as O/U. There will be a number listed, something like 155 for a college basketball game, 8 for a baseball game, or 47 for an NFL game. That number is the line for over/under bets, called the total. A bet on the over means you think both teams will combine to score more goals, points, or runs than the total listed. Conversely, an under bet means you think there will be less than the total listed. It’s that simple.

Let’s look at a few examples.

TEAM Run Line Total Moneyline Texas Rangers +1.5 -120 O 8 -110 +155 Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 +100 U 8 -110 -190 In this case, the Rays are hosting the Rangers, and the spread, total, and moneyline are all listed. We’re focusing on the total column here. There are two possible bets: betting there will be more than eight combined runs or betting under eight combined runs. The odds are the same for both bets, at -110, which is slightly less than even money. This is a relatively standard baseball total. Eight runs isn’t particularly high or low for a total. If you think one of the starting pitchers is due to blow up, maybe you bet the over. If you like how one of the pitchers matches up with the opposing lineup, maybe bet the under. Let’s say the final score is 6-3 in favor of the Rays. That’s nine runs in the game. That’s the over. What happens if it finished 5-3 and the total runs in the game match eight? Well, that’s called a push, and the bet is essentially canceled. The money you put down on the bet is returned, and it’s like nothing ever happened.

That’s where half points come in, like the example below:

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TEAM Spread Total Moneyline Boston Celtics -6 -110 O 212.5 -110 -250 Los Angeles Lakers +6 -110 U 212.5 -110 +195 In this NBA game, the total is not a whole number. You may be thinking: “How can they score half a point? That’s impossible.” Well, that’s the point. You can’t push the bet like in the baseball game above if the total is a half-point. You’re guaranteed to win or lose. Sportsbooks don’t like pushes because they can’t make money off pushes. They return all original bets and get nothing. As long as there is a winner or loser, they can make money. If the final score is 109-103 Celtics for a combined point total of 212, the under bets win. If, instead, the Lakers added a meaningless free throw in the last second, and then the Celtics ran out the clock for a 109-104 win, the over bets win. Another nuance worth mentioning is that the odds aren’t always the same for both sides of a bet. In the previous two examples, the overs and unders all had -110 odds. That is common but not guaranteed. Here’s an example of a hockey game where the under has higher-paying odds than the over. This is commonly referred to as the juice. TEAM Puck Line Total Moneyline Buffalo Sabres +1.5 +115 O 6 -120 +290 Washington Capitals -1.5 -140 U 6 +100 -350 The under bet is even money, meaning a winning bet would double the amount placed on the bet. However, the over is -120, meaning you’d have to bet $120 to win $100 (or $12 to win $10). This usually means that the over is getting more bets and/or is viewed as the slightly more likely outcome. This is more common in low-scoring sports. For example, in basketball, moving a line by half a point won’t dramatically change the bet, so that will often happen without the odds shifting. However, in hockey, moving a line by half a goal is a big difference. This is especially true in soccer, where 3-2 is considered a high-scoring game. As a result, a very common total for soccer is 2.5 goals, and the odds are rarely equal for both the over and under.

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Totals in prop bets

Totals are also frequently represented in prop bets. For example, betting if Steph Curry will make more than 4.5 threes in a game, Aaron Rodgers will throw fewer than 2.5 touchdowns in a game, or that the winner of the Masters will shoot more than 278.5 strokes for the weekend. This also includes more creative bets. A famous example of this is betting on the time of the national anthem at the Super Bowl. A time will be listed, say two minutes and two seconds, for the length of the anthem. If the singer finishes it in one minute, 59 seconds, then the under would win. Some prop bets such as the anthem that clearly doesn’t have a winner or loser are not allowed by some states gambling regulations.

Factors in totals

A lot of things go into how a total is determined. In basketball, the tempo is a huge factor. Up-tempo teams or bad defensive teams are going to have higher totals. In baseball, if a left-handed pitcher is facing a team whose best hitters all bat left-handed, the total might be a bit lower. Weather is also a big factor for outdoor sports. If the wind is blowing out at Wrigley Field, the total is usually going to be high. If Lambeau Field is a snowy, slippery mess, the total is likely to be lower. Make sure you know these things before placing a bet because these are all factored into a line.

theathletic.com - What is the over/under in sports betting? - The Athletic

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