Seed Distributions for March Madness: A Tool for Bracketologists (2023)
Knowing how far each seed is expected to advance (i.e., the number of expected wins in the tournament) provides useful information for assessing a bracket. The following table gives the number of times each seed has won in a particular round, the expected number of wins for each seed, and the standard deviation for the number of wins for each seed (a measure of the variability for the number of wins).
Seed R64, R32, S16, E8, F4, NF Expected Number of Wins Standard Deviation for the Number of Wins 1 147, 126, 101, 60, 37, 24 3.34 1.63 2 138, 93, 67, 32, 13, 5 2.35 1.49 3 126, 77, 37, 17, 11, 4 1.84 1.43 4 117, 70, 22, 13, 3, 1 1.53 1.22 5 95, 50, 10, 7, 3, 0 1.11 1.13 6 91, 43, 15, 3, 2, 1 1.05 1.11 7 90, 28, 10, 3, 1, 1 0.90 1.00 8 72, 15, 9, 6, 4, 1 0.72 1.09 9 76, 7, 4, 1, 0, 0 0.59 0.70 10 58, 24, 9, 1, 0, 0 0.62 0.92 11 57, 26, 9, 5, 0, 0 0.66 1.01 12 53, 22, 2, 0, 0, 0 0.52 0.77 13 31, 6, 0, 0, 0, 0 0.25 0.52 14 22, 2, 0, 0, 0, 0 0.17 0.4 15 10, 3, 1, 0, 0, 0 0.09 0.39 16 1, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0 0.007 0.10
The performance of each seed can also be measured by the percentage that have reached a certain round. The following table gives such numbers, based the historical performance of each seed (1985 through 2019). Since there are only two teams in the National Championship game, then at most two of any seed can reach that round. As such the percentage is based on the total number of slots, not the total number of seeds. The same applies to the National Champion (with one slot each year).
Seed Round of 32 Sweet Sixteen Elite Eight Final Four National Championship Game National Champion 1 99.3% 85.1% 68.2% 40.5% 50.0% 64.9% 2 93.2% 62.8% 45.3% 21.6% 17.6% 13.5% 3 85.1% 52.0% 25.0% 11.5% 14.9% 10.8% 4 79.1% 47.3% 14.9% 8.8% 4.1% 2.7% 5 64.2% 33.8% 6.8% 4.7% 4.1% 0% 6 61.5% 29.1% 10.1% 2.0% 2.7% 2.7% 7 60.8% 18.9% 6.8% 2.0% 1.4% 2.7% 8 48.6% 10.1% 6.1% 4.1% 5.4% 2.7% 9 51.4 4.7% 2.7% 0.7% 0% 0% 10 39.2% 16.2% 6.1% 0.7% 0% 0% 11 38.5% 17.6% 6.1% 3.4% 0% 0% 12 35.8% 14.9% 1.4% 0% 0% 0% 13 20.9% 4.1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 14 14.9% 1.4% 0% 0% 0% 0% 15 6.8% 2.0% 0.7% 0% 0% 0% 16 0.7% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
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mogul Jim McIngvale CINCINNATI (WXIX) - Texas business mogul Jim McIngvale, “Mattress Mack,” placed the biggest legal sports wager of all-time at $5 million on the Cincinnati Bengals moneyline (+170), according to Caesars Sportsbook.
CINCINNATI (WXIX) - Texas business mogul Jim McIngvale, “Mattress Mack,” placed the biggest legal sports wager of all-time at $5 million on the Cincinnati Bengals moneyline (+170), according to Caesars Sportsbook.
Mack’s $5 million bet surpasses the previous all-time highest wager of $4.9 million, which was made during the 2002 Super Bowl, Caesars notes.
This is Mack’s second multi-million-dollar bet placed on the Bengals to win Super Bowl LVI outright.
He also has a $4,534,000 Cincinnati moneyline bet that would win him $7,707,800.
In total, Mack has nearly $10 million riding on the Bengals.
He will collectively win $16,207,800 if the underdog Bengals take down the Los Angeles Rams on Feb. 13.
Mack is one of America’s most highly publicized bettors, but his recent track record doesn’t bode well for the Bengals.
Last year he bet $3.5 million over the season on the Astros to win the World Series, per the Action Network. The Astros lost to the Braves.
He bet $2.7 million on Alabama to win the College Football Playoff, which they lost.
The Bengals bets are tied to a store promotion, according to Mack. Customers who buy $3,000 or more of mattresses or reclining furniture will get their money back if Joe Burrow’s boys prevail.
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