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How likely is a 7 to roll?

1/6 On each successive roll the probability of rolling 7 is 1/6 and the probability of rolling 4 is 1/12. That is, on each successive roll the probability of losing is twice that of winning.

web.math.princeton.edu - Playing Craps - Princeton Math

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Make Your Bookie Cry And Pull The Hair By Generating $23,187

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Previous | ToC | Next Labs: Probability & Statistics. Part 1. Math Alive Playing Craps Here we present the rules for playing the game of craps in our simulation below. When a player rolls the dice for the first time, any combination of the two dice that adds up to 7 or 11 is a winner. Any dice total that equals 2, 3, or 12 is an immediate loser and is called craps. If the first roll is not an immediate winner or a loser, the total of the dice becomes known as the point. For all successive rolls, the player will win a game if the point is rolled again. However, if a 7 is rolled before the point is rolled, the player craps out. Below you can play craps. It will count for you the total number of wins and losses. If you want to restart the count, click on the "Start Over" button.

The Game of Craps Let us try to calculate the probability of winning. We can use the probabilities we calculated on the previous page. The probability of winning on the first roll is the probability of rolling 7 or 11, which is 1/6 plus 1/18, which equals to 2/9. Suppose we roll 4 on the first roll (the probability of rolling 4 is 1/12). On each successive roll the probability of rolling 7 is 1/6 and the probability of rolling 4 is 1/12. That is, on each successive roll the probability of losing is twice that of winning. That means, that on several rolls we are twice as probable to lose as to win. That is, the probability of winning after we rolled 4, is 1/3. Hence, the probability of rolling 4 and winning is 1/12 times 1/3, that is 1/36. Continuing in the same manner we can count the overall probability of winning. Can you do that?

Previous | ToC | Next Last Modified: August 2008

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What is a 1 in 68 chance?

If you do the maths, 1:68 is 1.47%, or in other words there is a 98.53% chance your baby does not have Downs. Pretty good odds I'd say.

mumsnet.com - 1/68 chance of downs - any with a similar result - Mumsnet

boredwithfoodprob · 04/11/2014 14:21

Thank you for your posts and positive stories.

Just wanted to update. I went for the Harmony test at the Foetal Medicine Centre, 2 weeks ago today. I was still within the time frame for the Nuchal/12 week scan to be repeated and this alone put my mind at rest some what - the Sonographer spent a good 30 mins looking at every detail on the scan - checking for all other markers of Downs which the NHS do not have the time/resources to check for. She was even able to check fingers and toes! The NT measurement remained the same at 3.3mm but everything else was normal. I got the results back today from the Harmony - I had the best result possible of a 1/10,000 risk of all 3 trisomies. Having gone from a 1/68 risk originally, I am over the moon with this result but there is still a small part of me that wonders why the nuchal was increased (hopefully just a blip), but fingers crossed the 20 week scan will go well and i'll feel more positive. I highly recommend the FMC for anyone in my position who had a high risk result with the NHS. The only downside is the price.

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