Wager Mage
Wager Mage
Photo: João Vítor Heinrichs
The bottom line, IF you are going to play a parlay, play a 3 or 5 outcome parlay.
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Read More »Smart and profitable bettors know that parlays are a bad play. True, they’re alluring and offer insane payouts, but the math has told us for a long time, they are “sucker bets.” Be it the lottery or any Casino; the entire gambling industry is built on the fact. However, this piece isn’t about berating those that make parlay wagers but providing insight on how to do it smarter. The bottom line, IF you are going to play a parlay, play a 3 or 5 outcome parlay. For those new and lucky enough to have never been enticed by the temptress that is Parlay Betting a Refresher (veterans of parlay play can skip to the next paragraph): A parlay wager is a singular bet on multiple outcomes of multiple events (2 or more) that all must succeed to payout winnings (ignoring progressive parlays, but that’s a tale for another day). In exchange for NEEDING to have ALL selections hit, parlays payout at a higher rate than those bets individually. Think of it this way, say you were betting on the side of an evenly balanced coin flip. In this example, you select “Heads” and would assume the payout of the bet to be about the equivalent as your stake, about 2:1 since you have a 50% chance of being correct (ignoring juice, or the fee to the sportsbook for creating the market between bettors, for now). But, what if you thought the next 3 flips would result in a “Head” and wanted to wager as such: you would be making a parlay bet, and since the odds of 3 continuous, unique “Heads” coming up occur 12.5% (½^3) of the time. You would expect a higher payout with those odds, knowing that ANY “Tails” result of the 3 flips would mean that you lose. This is a parlay bet. Practically, in sports betting, you wager on 2 or more outcomes that ALL must succeed to result in a “higher than x payout,” where x equals the payouts of each individual payout NOT TIED together, for you to collect your winnings. Now, remember the best rule of life: People aren’t stupid, and books/casinos follow suit. This means that although you choose to wager a Parlay Bet and are predicting MULTIPLE outcomes, expecting a higher return, those books/casinos know how to price them. That is, BEYOND the normal juice/vig you can expect from an ordinary bet, sportsbooks know the strength of the demand for “low-risk, high return” bets like parlays can be “juiced” an additional amount. So, in other words, although parlays offer high payouts, given the low likelihood of success, they are priced BEYOND a typical vig of an individual bet and never offer a positive likely outcome for the bettor–hence a sucker bet. Below you can see what 4 common sportsbooks are currently pricing the respective parlays at and what they WOULD be priced at if it were an evenly expected outcome. The first column is the number of teams in your parlay, the second the average current payout for a (roughly) 50/50 bet (-110/-100 bet), the third what the payout would have to be to give you a 0 net expected value (see below) and the fourth being how much money you are losing on every $100 bet over the long run.
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Read More »Most experienced bettors know this, but if you do not, STOP before ever making any bet before you read the following about expected value or EV: Simply put, for ANY bet (not just parlays, but we will get back to that): What am I expected to make, less what am I expected to lose? Mathematically this is broken down as follows:
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Read More »Again, the moral of the story stands: Do NOT play parlays (like a mother telling a child not to open up “Daddy’s special collection of magazines”), but if you do, play 3 or (to a lesser degree) 5 teams, as they show more/derivative value when adding teams from the 2nd and 4th respectively.
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