Wager Mage
Wager Mage
Photo: Alesia Kozik
12, at the time of this writing, Bitcoin was going for $63,712.34 per token. An initial $100 investment held for a tad over 11 years and four months has gained almost 8,000,000,000% and would now be worth $7,964,042,400.
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Read More »Over the very long-term, no asset class has been more successful at making investors richer than the stock market. Although there have been instances where housing, bonds, oil, and other commodities have outperformed equities in the short-term, no other investment vehicles have produced a higher average annual return than stocks.
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How to identify value bets calculate the implied probability; calculate true probability and therefore the fair odds; apply the expected value...
Read More »Arguably the biggest catalyst for Bitcoin is the perception of its scarcity. Whereas most cryptocurrencies have large maximum coin supplies (e.g., Shiba Inu started out with a max coin supply of 1 quadrillion), Bitcoin caps at a 21 million token supply. Since Bitcoin is mined and the block rewards associated with transaction validation halve every four years, the full 21 million tokens won't be in circulation until sometime around the year 2140. To build on this point, Bitcoin is often viewed as an inflationary hedge to what's been a free-wheeling Federal Reserve. Since Great Recession, the U.S. central bank's balance sheet has grown immensely, as has the U.S. money supply. The thinking here is that as inflation ticks higher and the true value of U.S. dollars declines, people will flock to Bitcoin, which has an aforementioned fixed supply of 21 million tokens. There's also clear excitement about Bitcoin's growing real-world utility. For example, El Salvador became the first country to legalize Bitcoin as tender, as of Sept. 7, 2021. Bitcoin is also the most-accepted digital currency among businesses worldwide. Not surprisingly, the largest cryptocurrency in the world by market cap has the biggest community, by a mile. Over 76 million people around the world, including 46 million in the U.S., have a unique wallet that contains Bitcoin, as of August 2021. Keep in mind these figures are prior to El Salvador making Bitcoin legal tender. Lastly, there's continued excitement about future upgrades that'll improve the network and, hopefully, increase adoption. For instance, the long-awaited Taproot upgrade occurred this past weekend. Taproot will boost Bitcoin's privacy, allow for complex (i.e. smart-contract-based) transactions at a cheaper cost, and combine multi-signatures transactions into one, which'll reduce data stored on the blockchain and help scale the network.
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Read More »Another concern is that Bitcoin may still lag a number of popular cryptocurrencies, even with the Taproot upgrade. At the moment, Bitcoin's transactions process much slower than its peers and cost substantially more. If businesses were looking for a blockchain-based use case that would improve existing payment infrastructure, Bitcoin would be way down the list of long-term candidates. Furthermore, Bitcoin is constantly being battered by dilution. But I'm not talking about token inflation. Rather, I'm speaking to the hundreds of new coins and blockchain projects being introduced on a weekly basis. While Bitcoin has first-mover advantages, it's a first-generation technology that could struggle to compete with third-generation blockchain innovation. The growing ability to trade Bitcoin presents additional challenges. Although shorting popular digital currencies is possible on many crypto exchanges, short-selling crypto is rare due to its volatility and sometimes sketchy liquidity. For some tokens, this creates something of a buy bias. But with the number of derivative listings for Bitcoin growing, it's providing a means for big money to bet against the world's largest digital currency. In essence, as access to Bitcoin grows, so does the ability to short-sell it. Lastly, history is pretty clear that investors always overestimate how quickly new technology will be adopted. Every next-big-thing trend since the mid-1990s has gone through a bubble phase and eventually deflated. This doesn't mean blockchain technology won't play a major role at some point in the future. It's simply to point out that the big gains in Bitcoin will likely prove fleeting as the enterprise shift to blockchain takes longer than expected.
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