Wager Mage
Wager Mage
Photo: RODNAE Productions
Underdogs are also 48-73-1 outright, a . 398 winning percentage. That might not sound like much, until you consider that a moneyline bet on every underdog to win every game this season would have increased your bankroll by more than 10 units.
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Read More »Through eight weeks, underdogs were 68-52-2 against the point spread, a 57 percent cover rate that, if it continues, would be the NFL’s highest since at least 2002, when the league expanded to 32 teams. If you had bet every underdog spread at -110 odds — wagering $110 to win $100, for example — you would be up about 7 percent on the year. Underdogs are also 48-73-1 outright, a .398 winning percentage. That might not sound like much, until you consider that a moneyline bet on every underdog to win every game this season would have increased your bankroll by more than 10 units. And many of the losses have come at the expense of those big-name quarterbacks. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers with Brady and Green Bay Packers with Rodgers were supposed to be Super Bowl contenders, but they’re a combined 3-10 against the spread as favorites this year. The Broncos, despite their highly compensated new quarterback, are 0-3 against the spread as favorites. Last season’s champions, the Los Angeles Rams, are 2-2 against the spread as favorites. Even the Kansas City Chiefs, who remain elite, have just a 2-3 record against the spread as favorites. Those five teams are collectively failing to cover the spread by an average of four points this season, according to data from the website TruMedia, a massive number. If such brand name teams have struggled as favorites, a group of upstarts have succeeded as underdogs. Wondering which teams have flummoxed the oddsmakers the most? The Atlanta Falcons top the list. They were underdogs in their first seven games — and covered the spread in their first six. The New York Giants were underdogs six times and covered in five of those contests. The Seattle Seahawks and New York Jets both covered as underdogs four times, with the Seahawks 4-2 against the spread as underdogs and the Jets 4-3. Those four teams were expected to be significantly worse than their collective 20-12 overall record; the Falcons were pegged as one of the worst projected teams in the NFL, with a preseason win total of just 4½ wins. Better-than-expected quarterback play is at the root of much of the overachievement. Seattle’s Geno Smith has been the fourth-most-valuable passer of 2022, per ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating; Atlanta’s Marcus Mariota ranks sixth, and Daniel Jones of the Giants ranks 11th. Zach Wilson ranks 24th, but it’s worth noting that the New York Jets improved after Wilson took over for Joe Flacco, who ranks 31st.
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Read More »Aside from evaluating the quarterbacks, to get a feel for which underdogs have a chance to win or cover, I often look to Football Outsiders and its defense-adjusted value over average metric. This rating measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every play to a league average based on situation and opponent. Last season, the higher-ranked team in DVOA won 83 percent of the time, but the point spreads don’t always reflect that. In Week 9, for example, there is a huge mismatch of DVOA between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks. The Cardinals, 1½-point favorites (who were previously favored by even more), rank 30th in DVOA while Seattle ranks sixth. You can also use expected points added, which compares how many points a team scores given a specific down, distance and field position with how the rest of the league fares. The higher a team’s EPA on offense and defense, the better it has performed. You can take it a step further and eliminate the fourth quarter and garbage time, situations that tend to skew the results. This also suggests the Seahawks this week are an enticing underdog in a season in which upstarts have thrived. I wouldn’t construct my entire portfolio of weekly wagers around underdogs, but this appears to be a year to be more aggressive than usual in taking the points.
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