Wager Mage
Wager Mage
Photo: Spencer Davis
97 times the underdog won the game outright. 39 times the favorite won the game but the underdog covered the spread. 2 pushes. 1 tie.
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Read More »As soon as NFL betting lines are released early every week, we comb through the spreads. We try and find out which spreads are too high, which spreads are too low and try and figure out where the value is. We've been conditioned to think these spreads are extremely spot on and that Vegas always knows what's going to happen. Every point matters. However, recent data seems to suggest we might be overthinking things.
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Read More »This data is fascinating to me. There are things you can take away on both sides of the equation. First and foremost, if you like an underdog to cover the spread, you should be sprinkling some money on the moneyline every time. If you are not, you're doing yourself a disservice. Even if you're risk averse, the least you should be doing is splitting your bet up. If you like the underdog against the spread, and you normally bet $100 per game, maybe put $75 of that on the spread and $25 on the moneyline. Maybe you split it evenly and go $50 on spread and $50 on the moneyline. That's a personal decision, but you should sprinkle every time. On the other side of the equation, if you like the favorite, don't be afraid to lay the points. Outside of Wong teasers that go through 3 and 7, there's absolutely no reason to be teasing games. You shouldn't be buying points or risking more juice on alternate spreads. The majority of the time, those points won't matter and you're simply giving the sportsbook a bigger cut. Look at this past week. Just once did the spread matter, and even then, it almost didn't. Detroit covered as a 6.5-point underdog but lost the game. The Lions led most of the game and Minnesota didn't take a lead until the final minute. Teams like Jacksonville, Miami and Indianapolis were underdogs of larger than a field goal on Sunday. Sure, they cashed for anyone who took them on the spread. However, anyone who had the stones to take them on the moneyline came out with a much nicer payday. We've been conditioned through years of betting that these spreads are gospel and that the game will come down to the wire against the number. A lot of bettors are afraid to lay big numbers for that reason. Underdog bettors usually try and gobble up as many points as they can get. However, through the last 21 weeks of regular season football, there have been 320 games played. The spread has come into play just 45 times. That's just over 14% of the time. Almost 86% of the time, the number we spend the whole week analyzing doesn't even come into play.
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