How often do quads hit?

To put this into context, assuming any starting hand, we'll flop Quads or better roughly once every 3,333 flops. Assuming we play roughly 25% of our starting hands, we can expect to flop Quads or better approximately once every 13,332 hands.

888poker.com - The Odds of Making Four of a Kind in Poker

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The odds of flopping Four of a Kind or better with a pocket pair is 0.24% or 1 in 416 Definition of Four of a Kind (also known as Quads) – We hold four cards of equal rank. Example – AdAhAsAcKh Four of a Kind Aces is the strongest Four of a Kind hand in poker and is also referred to as “Quad Aces”. Odds of Making a Four of a Kind (Quads) on the Flop Making Four of a Kind on the flop is an extremely rare occurrence. We’ll focus solely on the odds of making Four of a Kind or better. Odds of flopping Four of a Kind or better with any starting hand = 0.03% Odds of flopping Four of a Kind or better with a pocket pair = 0.24% Odds of flopping Four of a Kind or better with AKo = 0.01% To put this into context, assuming any starting hand, we’ll flop Quads or better roughly once every 3,333 flops. Assuming we play roughly 25% of our starting hands, we can expect to flop Quads or better approximately once every 13,332 hands.

Odds of Making Four of a Kind on the Later Streets

The most common draw to make Four of a Kind is where we already hold Three of a Kind on the current street. Since there are only 4 cards of each rank in the deck, it means that we only have one out to make Quads on each street. Odds of hitting Quads on the turn = 1/47 = 0.0213 or roughly 2.1% Odds of hitting Quads on the river = 1/46 = 0.0217 or roughly 2.2% To calculate the odds of hitting Quads on either the turn or river, we can use a simple trick. We’ll calculate the probability of not hitting and then subtract from 100. Odds of not hitting Quads on the turn = 46/47 Odds of not hitting Quads on the river = 45/46 Odds of not hitting Quads on either the turn or the river = 46/47 * 45/46 = 0.9574 or roughly 95.7% Hence, the chance of hitting Quads by the river after flopping trips is (100 – 95.7) = roughly 4.3% So even after making Three of a Kind, we are statistically unlikely to make Four of a Kind by the river.

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golfdigest.com - How to become good, or at least less terrible, at Texas Hold 'Em

To have the “nuts” means to have the best possible hand on the table, and when that happens, you want to extract as much profit as you can. In a recent hand, I had KQ of clubs, and the flop came up A75—all clubs. That meant I had the flush, and nothing could beat it…and nothing was likely to, regardless of the turn and river. Instead of going all-in or making some huge bet, I just checked, then called a small bet. I kept doing that through the turn, at which point another player made a large bet that caused everyone but me to fold. I waited 20 seconds, as though I were struggling deep in thought, before calling. Then came the river, which didn’t change my status as the best possible hand (no full house possibility, no straight flush). I checked, and another big bet came. This time, I raised all-in, and suddenly the other player had to reckon with the fact that he’d bet a ton of chips already. He had to decide if he thought I was bluffing, and if so, whether it was worth it to call to find out. There was some psychology at play on his end—the sunk cost fallacy (“I’ve spent this many chips already, so…”), ego-related defiance (“I have good cards, can I let him bully me?”), and the looming thrill of calling a big bluff. He couldn’t resist calling, and he walked straight into my flush. I got all his money, and it was more by far than I could have hoped for if I played the best hand aggressively from the start. It sounds paradoxical, but put aggression aside when you’re a sure winner.

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