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How often do underdogs win in NFL?

sports.yahoo.com - NFL betting: Underdogs and unders continue to dominate NFL season

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If you look at the data, betting the NFL has been pretty simple this season. Underdogs on the moneyline, underdogs against the spread and games to go under the total have all cashed for bettors at extremely profitable rates to open the season. However, people like betting on presumed good teams. Those good teams are usually favored in games. Bettors also like rooting for excitement and action, which correlates to points. Therefore, bettors tend to prefer to bet on games to go over the total. All of this has led to a slow start to the season for the betting public. As the weather gets colder, scoring doesn't usually pick up. As games get more important, margin might be even harder to get in victories. Let's take a look at the data so far this season and what it means moving forward.

Just blindly bet underdogs?

So far through seven weeks of the NFL season, underdogs are 43-64-1 straight up. While a 39.8% winning percentage might not look great, it's more than enough. If you've bet $100 on every underdog on the moneyline this season, you would currently be up $1,465 dollars in profit. Overall, underdogs are 62-45-1 against the spread this season. That means they've been covering 57.9% of the time, which is well above the break-even mark of 52.4%. If you blindly bet underdogs against the spread, you'd have nearly a 10.5% ROI through the first seven weeks. Not bad. Road underdogs have been money to open the season. They are 36-26 against the spread. Bigger underdogs are also covering at a high rate. Teams getting more than a field goal are 44-22 ATS through seven weeks. That's a cover rate of 66.7%. Favorites laying seven points or more are just 15-8-1 straight up. While that may seem fine, it's actually extremely low. That's only a 62.5% winning percentage in games that are viewed as huge mismatches going into the week. Teams laying a touchdown or more are covering the spread just 33% of the time to begin the season. This week, the Cowboys, Eagles and Bills are all laying over a touchdown.

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Scoring is way down

Scoring across the NFL is down at an alarming rate.

Total NFL Touchdowns Scored Through 7 weeks:

2020: 660 (559 after W6, 101 total TDs in W7)

2021: 611 (531 after W6, 80 total TDs in W7)

2022: 517 (447 after W6, 70 total TDs in W7)

Really gotta pick your spots now for TD betting. Hopefully we see an uptick in Week 8. — Gilles Gallant (@GDAWG5000) October 25, 2022 As a result, unders are 64-44 (59.3%) to begin the season. Unders have finished .500 or better in every week of this season:

Week 1: 11-5

Week 2: 11-5

Week 3: 8-8

Week 4: 8-8

Week 5: 9-7

Week 6: 10-4

Week 7: 7-7

Not only is the lack of scoring impacting totals, but it's also impacting prop markets, especially anytime touchdown scoring bets. Quite simply, there are fewer touchdowns being scored, so what was already a market with huge variance has become even harder to beat due to lower amounts of opportunity. There are two types of unders in particular that are cashing at a high rate. The most obvious has been prime-time unders. Games played at night (Thursday, Sunday night and Monday) this season are 14-8 to the under. Overall, since 2019, prime-time unders are hitting at a 58.4% rate. Thursday night unders have hit in five of seven games this season and 16 of the last 21 games. The other profitable under to bet has been divisional game unders. Overall through seven weeks, unders are 25-10 in divisional games this season. That's an incredible 71.4% win rate. Here are the totals for Week 8 divisional games:

What does this mean?

The data supports what we've all seen through the first seven weeks of the season. A lot of teams we expected to be good aren't meeting expectations. Most of those struggles are coming on the offensive side of the football, so the low-scoring games also make sense. The Denver Broncos, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers are all 2-5 against the spread to open the season. These three teams were viewed as Super Bowl contenders by many entering the season. Last season's champions, the Los Angeles Rams, are 2-4 against the spread. Teams like Kansas City, San Francisco and Miami also have losing records against the spread.

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The same can be said when you look at totals. The Broncos and Buccaneers have seen six of their seven games go under the total. Nobody expected that with Tom Brady and Russell Wilson at the helm. The Buffalo Bills have been extremely impressive, but they've seen just one of their six games go over the total. The Rams are also 5-1 to the under. Last season's highest-scoring team, the Dallas Cowboys, have gone over in just two of seven games. Quarterbacks like Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray also have gone over just twice this season. The market perception of a lot of these teams is changing. Tom Brady and the Buccaneers are a home underdog this week. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are a double-digit underdog. The Broncos and Russell Wilson are an underdog against a 2-5 Jacksonville team. The defending Super Bowl champions are home underdogs against a 3-4 San Francisco team. Totals are also lower across the board. Maybe with oddsmakers adjusting, things will start to even out. Maybe some of these teams we expected to be good will also figure things out down the stretch and offer a good opportunity to buy low. Until then, you'd be silly not to look towards underdogs and unders.

sports.yahoo.com - NFL betting: Underdogs and unders continue to dominate NFL season

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