How often do you hit quads in poker?

To put this into context, assuming any starting hand, we'll flop Quads or better roughly once every 3,333 flops. Assuming we play roughly 25% of our starting hands, we can expect to flop Quads or better approximately once every 13,332 hands.

888poker.com - The Odds of Making Four of a Kind in Poker

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The odds of flopping Four of a Kind or better with a pocket pair is 0.24% or 1 in 416 Definition of Four of a Kind (also known as Quads) – We hold four cards of equal rank. Example – AdAhAsAcKh Four of a Kind Aces is the strongest Four of a Kind hand in poker and is also referred to as “Quad Aces”. Odds of Making a Four of a Kind (Quads) on the Flop Making Four of a Kind on the flop is an extremely rare occurrence. We’ll focus solely on the odds of making Four of a Kind or better. Odds of flopping Four of a Kind or better with any starting hand = 0.03% Odds of flopping Four of a Kind or better with a pocket pair = 0.24% Odds of flopping Four of a Kind or better with AKo = 0.01% To put this into context, assuming any starting hand, we’ll flop Quads or better roughly once every 3,333 flops. Assuming we play roughly 25% of our starting hands, we can expect to flop Quads or better approximately once every 13,332 hands.

Odds of Making Four of a Kind on the Later Streets

The most common draw to make Four of a Kind is where we already hold Three of a Kind on the current street. Since there are only 4 cards of each rank in the deck, it means that we only have one out to make Quads on each street. Odds of hitting Quads on the turn = 1/47 = 0.0213 or roughly 2.1% Odds of hitting Quads on the river = 1/46 = 0.0217 or roughly 2.2% To calculate the odds of hitting Quads on either the turn or river, we can use a simple trick. We’ll calculate the probability of not hitting and then subtract from 100. Odds of not hitting Quads on the turn = 46/47 Odds of not hitting Quads on the river = 45/46 Odds of not hitting Quads on either the turn or the river = 46/47 * 45/46 = 0.9574 or roughly 95.7% Hence, the chance of hitting Quads by the river after flopping trips is (100 – 95.7) = roughly 4.3% So even after making Three of a Kind, we are statistically unlikely to make Four of a Kind by the river.

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