How often does a pair of aces win?

Pocket Aces are the best possible starting hand in a game of Texas Hold'em. While you're not going to automatically win the pot just because you picked up pocket aces, the hand does have around an 85 percent chance of winning head-to-head against a random two-card hand.

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Pocket Aces are the best possible starting hand in a game of Texas Hold’em. While you’re not going to automatically win the pot just because you picked up pocket aces, the hand does have around an 85 percent chance of winning head-to-head against a random two-card hand. Let’s take a look at how pocket aces stack up against a few other specific hands in Texas Hold’em.

Odds of Winning With Pocket Aces

The following numbers represent the probability of pockets aces winning against other hands during the preflop betting round, with no community cards on the board:

What Are The Odds of Winning with Aces Against Kings?

When pocket aces go heads-up against pocket kings preflop, pocket aces have around an 81 percent chance of winning. That probability goes up slightly if one of the aces and one of the kings share the same suit. If both cards in each hand are the same suits (like A♠ A♥ versus K♠ K♥), pocket aces become an 82.36 percent favorite to win.

What Are The Odds of Winning with Aces Against Ace-King?

Ace-King is a powerful preflop starting hand, but pocket aces crush ace-king when the two hands go head-to-head. Pocket aces beat ace-king offsuit around 92 percent of the time. The suited version of ace-king (like A♥ K♥) fares a bit better against pocket aces, but still loses around 87 percent of the time.

What Hand Has the Best Odds Against Pocket Aces?

Suited connector hands like 8♣ 7♣ and 7♣ 6♣ have the best odds against pocket aces, but are still a major underdog preflop. Pocket aces hold 76.83 percent equity against both of these hands if the suited connector doesn’t share the suit with one of the aces. The odds go down slightly if the suit is shared with one of the aces (like 8♣ 7♣ against A♣ A♥). In this case, pocket aces have a 77.88 percent chance of winning.

How Often Will I Get Pocket Aces in Texas Hold’em?

The probability of picking up pocket aces (or any particular pocket pair) in Texas Hold’em is once every 221 hands. You’ll sometimes see pocket aces several times in a single session, however, and you’ll also experience lengthy stretches without picking up aces. In the long run, all players at the table have the same chance of being dealt pocket aces in a particular hand.

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How often should I mug bet?

Where and when you should place mug bets depends on who you ask, however most matched bettors recommend mugging corporate bookies 1:1 - that is, one mug bet for each promo bet. You can use the ATM or Horsepower to find mugging opportunities with a low Qualifying Loss (QL).

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What are 'mug bets' and how often should I place them?

Unfortunately, if you are matched betting, your accounts will eventually get gubbed. Delaying these gubs through account sustainability is arguably the most important part of matched betting. The main method of account sustainability is 'mugging' - which is essentially placing non-promo bets that are -EV. This will help you blend in with regular 'mug' punters, and delay detection by their gubbing algorithms. Where and when you should place mug bets depends on who you ask, however most matched bettors recommend mugging corporate bookies 1:1 - that is, one mug bet for each promo bet. You can use the ATM or Horsepower to find mugging opportunities with a low Qualifying Loss (QL). As we do not have insider information on each bookie, we can not say for certain what the perfect way to mug is. However, we do know that someone who is placing 100% of their bets on promo markets is more likely to get banned than someone who only places 50% of their bets on promos. For more info on mug betting you can check out the Account Sustainability course.

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