Wager Mage
Wager Mage
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Throwing darts is a skill task which requires high motor skills in order to perform well [61].
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Read More »Abstract Understanding and predicting how individuals perform in high-pressure situations is of importance in designing and managing workplaces. We investigate performance under pressure in professional darts as a near-ideal setting with no direct interaction between players and a high number of observations per subject. Analyzing almost one year of tournament data covering 32,274 dart throws, we find no evidence in favor of either choking or excelling under pressure. Citation: Ötting M, Deutscher C, Schneemann S, Langrock R, Gehrmann S, Scholten H (2020) Performance under pressure in skill tasks: An analysis of professional darts. PLoS ONE 15(2): e0228870. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0228870 Editor: Darrell A. Worthy, Texas A&M University, UNITED STATES Received: August 28, 2019; Accepted: January 24, 2020; Published: February 21, 2020 Copyright: © 2020 Ötting et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability: All relevant data are within the manuscript and its Supporting Information files. In addition, if the article will be published, we will make the data and the corresponding R-Code available in a GitHub repository. Alternatively, the data and R-Code can also be uploaded at PLOS ONE (if possible) to provide it to the readers, as we submitted data and code together with the manuscript in the submission. Funding: The author(s) received no specific funding for this work. Competing interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. Introduction The effect of pressure on human performance is relevant in various areas of the society, including sports competitions [1], political crises [2], and performance-based payment in workplaces [3], to name but a few. A broad distinction differentiates between effort and skill tasks. Success in effort tasks is dependent on motivation to perform while skill task outcomes underlie precision of (often automatic) execution. For effort tasks, such as counting digits [4] or filling envelopes [5], individuals will typically respond to increased pressure (e.g. resulting from performance-related payment schemes) by investing more effort, which given the nature of such tasks will improve their performance [6; 7; 8; 9]. However, the literature on the impact of pressure on performance in skill tasks, e.g. juggling a soccer ball [10], is inconsistent and effectively divided into two different strands of research. On the one hand, the existing literature related to potential “choking under pressure” indicates broad agreement that performance in skill tasks declines in high-pressure or decisive situations. An individual is said to be choking under pressure when their performance is worse than expected given their capabilities and past performances [11]. While there may also be random fluctuations in skill levels, choking under pressure refers to systematic suboptimal performance in high-pressure situations. The associated empirical findings—both such that are based on experimental data but also those using field data—consistently confirm a negative impact of pressure on skill tasks. On the other hand, and to some extent in contrast to the literature related to choking under pressure, the literature related to the concept of “social facilitation” refers to potential negative but also potential positive effects of (social) pressure on performance—depending on circumstances associated with the performance. The social facilitation literature explicitly incorporates characteristics of the task and individuals’ level of expertise into their analyses, and generally states that the circumstances surrounding performance play an important role regarding the impact of pressure on performance. Existing contributions focusing on potential choking have largely neglected the corresponding more comprehensive picture drawn by the social facilitation literature, by simply relating performance decrements to changes in the execution of actions, or simply distraction, generated either by rewards in case of success [12; 3] or potential penalties in case of failure [13]. Our empirical investigation of individual’s performance in pressure situations is based on a large data set from a skill task, namely professional darts, comprising 32,274 individual dart throws, for a comprehensive empirical test of performance under pressure. For the professional darts players analyzed in this study, playing darts is a full time job. The top players regularly earn prize money exceeding one million Euro per year. In professional darts, highly skilled players repeatedly throw at the dartboard from the exact same position effectively without any interaction between competitors, making the task highly standardized. The amount of data available on throwing performances not only allows for comprehensive inference on the existence and the magnitude of any potential effect of pressure on performance, but also enables to track the variability of the effect across players. The literature on choking would suggest that performance of professional darts players declines in high-pressure situations. However, when considering the highly standardized task to be performed and players’ high level of expertise, we do not expect dart players to choke under pressure. The paper is structured as follows: Section 2 reviews the literature on performance under pressure, and in particular details what we consider to be advantages of the darts setting with respect to investigating performance under pressure. In Section 3, we explain the rules of darts and define what constitutes pressure situations in darts. Section 4 presents the empirical approach and results. Performance under pressure Terminology Pressure results from individuals’ ambitions to perform in an optimal way in situations where high-level performance is in demand [12]. Performance under pressure could in principle go either way, i.e. high expectations towards (the own) performance could impact performance in a negative (choking) or a positive (clutch) way—or not at all. To measure the impact of pressure, performance in pressure situations is compared to performance in non-pressure situations. Choking under pressure refers specifically to a negative impact of high performance expectations [14; 15] while clutch performance is described as “any performance increment or superior performance that occurs under pressure circumstances” (see p. 584 in [16]). Potential effects of pressure The impact of pressure on performance crucially depends on the type of task to be performed. Tasks can be such that performance is determined mostly by effort, or alternatively tasks can be such that the skill level is the key factor for success. For effort tasks, pressure situations result in increased effort and hence improved performance [17]. For skill tasks, performance has been demonstrated to be both impaired (choking) and increased (clutching) by pressure—or not affected at all. While the effect of pressure on effort tasks is obvious and well documented, in skill tasks the potential psychological factors at play are likely more complex, such that we focus on these tasks in the following. Choking. Choking under pressure in skill tasks may be related to various drivers. In particular, different skills may make use of different memory functions, namely explicit and procedural memory, respectively [18]. Explicit memory enables the intentional recollection of factual information, while procedural memory works without conscious awareness and helps at performing tasks. Two classes of attentional theories capture choking under pressure, distraction theories and explicit monitoring theories [19; 1]. Some authors argue that distraction and explicit monitoring theories are not necessarily mutually exclusive, but rather complementary (see, e.g., [20; 21]). Distraction theories claim high-pressure situations to harm performance by putting individuals’ attention to task irrelevant thoughts [20; 22]. Put in a nutshell, individuals concern about two tasks at once, since the situation-related thoughts add to the task to be performed. Given the restricted working memory individuals performance declines as focus is drawn away from the main task [23]. On the other hand, self-focus or explicit monitoring theories explicitly predict that pressure increases self-consciousness to a point where it harms performance (overattention). It can cause the skilled performer to deviate from routine actions [24]. Instead, closer attention is paid to the single processes of performance and their step-by-step control. This ties in with the concept of skill acquisition: when initially learning a skill, performance is controlled consciously by explicit knowledge as actions are executed step-by-step [25]. Over time and through practice, skills become internalized and usage of conscious control decreases. Pressure can interfere with this now automated control processes of skilled performers [26]. Under pressure, actions are no longer executed automatically as attention is redirected to task execution [19]. The overall sequence of actions is broken down into step-by-step control as in early stages of learning, resulting in impaired performance [27]. Consequently, individuals consciously monitor and control a skill they would perform automatically in non-pressure situations [28; 19]. Other potential effects. An alternative strand of literature suggests that ‘pressure’ situations do not inevitably affect performance in a negative way but may also have a positive impact on task performance—or no effect at all. The corresponding notion of social facilitation is one of the oldest paradigms within experimental social psychology (see, e.g., [29; 30]): “Generally, social facilitation refers to performance enhancement and impairment effects engendered by the presence of others either as coactors or, more typically, as observers or an audience” (see p. 75 in [31]). A potential theoretical explanation for the opposing effects of audience is that social presence facilitates dominant behavior [29]. Dominant behavior refers to the kind of response which is more likely: correct or incorrect. In case of, e.g., simple tasks it is more likely to perform the task correctly while individuals tend to make more mistakes when executing more complex tasks [32]. Hence, whether audience facilitates [+] or impairs [−] performance depends on the type of task (simple [+] vs. complex [−]) and/or individuals’ level of expertise (expert [+] vs. beginner [−]) [33]. The presence of others increases the individuals’ (physiological) arousal or drive level which in turn impairs or enhances task performance, respectively [29]. A review of 12 years of research following the drive theory suggests that their propositions are still valid [30]. Nonetheless, alternatives to drive theory have evolved in the following decades. While some non-drive theories relate audience effects to self-awareness [32], others refer to (cognitive) attention focus [34]. Though experimental research uniformly confirms that social presence affects individuals’ performance, it remains unclear which mechanism mainly drives behavior. As the presence of others represents a particular case of pressure, it hence seems perfectly possible that pressure enhances performance—depending on the type of task and the individuals’ level of expertise. Empirical findings for performance under pressure in skill tasks As this paper analyses performance under pressure in a sport-related skill task, this section is devoted to previous findings from sports. There are also early non-sport studies [12; 35]. Golf putting performance is investigated in an experimental setting, suggesting performance to be worse when subjects are put under pressure [22]. However, in high-pressure situations participants who are distracted by a secondary task (counting down from 100) outperform subjects who solely concentrate on the putting task. The latter result is explained by too much focus on the task execution induced by the additional motivation to perform well in high-pressure conditions. The additional focus disturbs task execution which normally is performed automatically. There is also further evidence for diminishing golf putting performance under pressure provided by asking 108 undergraduate students with little or no golf experience to putt a golf ball as close to a target as possible [36]. Considering different kinds of intervention methods, pressure-like situations using monetary incentives are created. Results generally confirm decreasing performance for high-pressure situations. However, the authors show putting accuracy to slightly increase under pressure when subjects had made their practice putts under self-consciousness-raising conditions. Based on the assumption that pressure increases left-hemispheric activation which in turn is related to the controlled execution of a task and thereby to performance decrements, participants of a previous study performed a sport-related motor skill task in three blocks (in soccer, tea kwon do, or badminton) [37]. While the first two trials serve as for the introduction of pressure, the third trial is performed after participants have squeezed a softball for 30 seconds. Thereby, half of the participants activated their right hemisphere by squeezing the ball in their left hand, before again performing the task under pressure. Overall, the findings indicate performance deterioration when pressure is introduced but that the activation of the right hemisphere can eliminate this effect, thus preventing choking under pressure. However, they find no evidence for increased performance under pressure. In a further study, a throwing task had to be performed by the participants to analyze novices’ performances [38]. During the experiment, the performance expectancy within the experimental group regarding the ability to perform under pressure is manipulated. The results show a significant performance increase of the experimental group when pressure is applied, while the performance of the participants in the control group does not alter before and during pressure situations. For a hockey dribbling task with 34 experienced participants, performance is found to be worse in high-pressure situations [28]. Results further show that within high and low-pressure conditions subjects perform better when not concentrating explicitly on the task execution. By analyzing a hockey dribbling setting with experienced hockey players, additional evidence for declining performance in pressure situations is found. However, it is demonstrated that in a high-pressure priming condition, performances are equal to those in a low-pressure situation and better (thus faster) than in a high-pressure non-priming condition [39]. For basketball novices, decreasing free throw success in pressure situations is shown [28]. This result only applies to those subjects who are asked to pay close attention to the execution process during the practicing phase. Analyzing free throw performances of competitive basketball players instead of novices supports the results [40]. Thus, participants suffer a significant decrease in free throw success when performing in a high-pressure situation induced by the introduction of an audience, videotaping and offering financial rewards for improved performance. A further study analyzes the impact of fear of negative evaluation on performance, investigating success rates of throwing a basketball from a short distance [41]. The shots are taken from five different spots which all are placed at the distance of the free throw line. The authors find decreasing performance (thus choking) only for participants who were anxious about being evaluated negatively. For other subjects no significant differences in success rates are found. Outside of experiments, field studies take advantage of the wealth of data on actual market participants who repeatedly perform almost identical tasks but under varying degrees of pressure. Pressure in these instances is determined by factors such as the importance of the competition considered, the current score in the competition, and the time left to play in a match. Penalty kicks in soccer are considered to be a prototype pressure situation, as they critically affect the match outcome and the expectation to score a goal is very high. In line with the hypothesis of individuals tending to choke under pressure at skill tasks, success rates of penalty kicks in professional football are found to decline with increasing importance of success, i.e. as pressure increases [42]. However, contradictory to these results, success rates in penalty shootouts are found to increase with pressure in the German cup competition confirming clutch performance [43]. In addition, several studies focus on the “last-mover disadvantage”, i.e. whether teams that go first in a shootout have an advantage over the other team resulting from higher pressure from trailing [44; 45; 46]. One of these studies finds that that last-mover teams indeed suffer from this kind of pressure [45], the other studies refute this finding and speculate the contradictory results to be a consequence of data issues [44; 46]. Potential reasons for varying success in penalty shootouts between players are that players from high-status countries a) generally perform worse and b) engage more in escapist self-regulation strategies than players from low status-countries [47]. In golf, performance under pressure is analyzed for putting [48; 49]. Analyzing the impact of the current leaderboard situation on performance, the author finds that interim results are irrelevant for performance. In particular players who are in the lead or close to the lead in the final round do not perform worse than those who are further behind. Furthermore, players’ performances are constant across rounds. Between-athlete comparisons may explain this finding, which is not in line with the widely accepted hypothesis of individuals choking under pressure [50]. Considering also within-golfer comparisons, such findings cannot be replicated, and corresponding studies instead do find athletes to choke under pressure [50]. Relating choking under pressure to golfers’ age, an inverted U-shaped relationship on the professionals’ tour with performance under pressure peaking at age 36 is shown [51]. The success rate at the final putt of a golf tournament is found to decrease as the value associated with that shot increases [52]. Finally, golfer currently with the lead are found to underperform at the end of close contests [53]. Basketball free throws constitute another scenario that is often investigated to analyze performance under pressure. Considering data from the National Basketball Association (NBA), and modelling free throw success rates as a function of the current score, players are shown to perform much worse when their team is either trailing by 1 or 2 points, or in the lead with 1 point. Attempts are more successful when the score is tied (which equals less pressure since a miss would end in an overtime and not a loss) [54]. Further evidence for choking under pressure in professional basketball is reported with performance declining with additional pressure [55]. However, the authors show performance to be unaffected by the crowd size, the tournament round, and whether or not it is a home game for the player considered. Examining the determinants of choking under pressure, overall lower free-throw success rates are found for different groups (containing females and males, and amateurs and professionals) in case of high-pressure situations [56]. Analyzing the performance of professional basketball players who had been categorized as “clutch players” by basketball experts is also part of previous research [57]. Results show that clutch players are indeed able to increase their performance (which is measured by points scored and fouls drawn) in high-pressure situations such as the final minutes of close games, while performance of other players is not affected by pressure. Therefore, results provide evidence that clutch performers actually do exist. However, the analysis further shows no differences for clutch players’ field goal percentage between low-pressure and high-pressure situations. It is also reported that professional basketball players who maintain their performance under pressure earn higher salaries [58]. While some contradictory results have been reported, overall there still seems to be fairly evidence that professional athletes do choke under pressure, at least in some scenarios. Task features of the darts setting Empirical advantages. Despite the effort that has already gone into studying the impact of pressure of performance, we believe that the setting of professional darts is an important addition to the existing body of literature. While we do not claim the following features to be unique to darts—as they effectively also apply to bowling, archery etc.—they are important to mention as they improve the reliability of any results obtained, compared to other more complex settings which have regularly been analyzed in past research. First, in darts, players cannot interfere the performance of the opponent directly. In order to precisely measure the impact of pressure, analyses need to focus on such performance that is not affected by others [59]. In many other settings, such as penalty kicks in soccer, opponents can impact each other’s success. As a matter of fact missing a penalty shot can be caused by the kicker’s or the goalkeeper’s performance, respectively, or both. The individualistic nature of darts reduces variance caused by interference of opponents present in other settings. Second, subjects in our data are highly trained in the task they perform. Such experience is obtained from training and previous competition, the latter may or may not be covered in our sample. Observing experienced professionals vastly reduces the noise to be expected for inexperienced players with large fluctuations in performance. The separation of the impact of pressure on performance is hence much clearer in professional sports settings (compared to lab experience with amateurs). Third and closely related to the previous point, the task to be performed in a pressure situation is more or less identical to the only task the players perform throughout the contest. The only difference is given by the specific field the player attempt to hit. In comparison, penalty shots only account for a very small fraction of actions a soccer player need to perform [60]. In line with our previous argument, estimating skill levels in pressure situations requires such separation of signal and (potentially very large) noise. If pressure is closely related to the task at hand (e.g. a penalty shot) it is hard to separate between pressure generated by the task and pressure generated by the situation. Fourth, all players in darts are repeatedly confronted with high pressure situations. For penalty kicks or free throws, team managers may rely on the same set of players when confronted with pressure situations, namely those who they have faith in to deal with the pressure or are very skilled in the specific task. Such sample selection can be detrimental to the quality of the results and occurs especially for very specific tasks. Overall, we believe that professional darts offers a nearly optimal empirical setting to investigate the impact of pressure on performance. Players repeatedly perform highly standardized actions, with no interference by an opponent or any teammates involved, and hardly any relevant external factors. Characteristics of task / dart players. As already discussed above, the social facilitation literature suggests that the circumstances surrounding performance affects the consequences of pressure. These circumstances mainly refer to the individuals’ level of expertise and complexity / difficulty of the task. As our data set includes professional dart players who are highly trained in throwing darts, we observe individuals of high expertise. Throwing darts is a skill task which requires high motor skills in order to perform well [61]. There is a high level of standardization of individual throws as well as many repetitions of almost identical actions, performed by professionals. Even though hitting a specific slice of the dartboard requires a high precision of movements, we assume that throwing a dart at a dartboard is less complex than, e.g., shooting a penalty (soccer), throwing at a basket (basketball), or putting a ball (golf). The more the task relies on simple, well-rehearsed responses, the smaller the chances of performance decrements. Hence, we expect performance of dart players to be unaffected by pressure. In contrast to the literature related to social facilitation, the choking literature would predict that performance in darts declines as pressure increases. Pressure situations in darts For readers who may be unfamiliar with the rules of darts, we here provide a short description. The dartboard consists of 20 different slices, which differ with respect to their value (ranging from 1 to 20), and the center of the board, which is composed of two fields, namely the single bull and the bullseye. Each slice is further divided into three different parts: two single, one double and one triple field. The bullseye is the double field of the single bull. Fig 1 shows the layout of a standard dartboard, highlighting the single five segment, the double and triple eight, respectively, and the single bull together with the bullseye. The inside width of the triple and double fields is 8mm, whereas the diameter of the bullseye is 12.7mm. A darts match is typically played by two players. (There are cases of team competitions in darts but these are not considered in our analysis.) Players are standing 2.37m away from the dartboard (at the “oche”), the height of which is 1.73m (from the ground to the center of the bullseye). PPT PowerPoint slide
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