Wager Mage
Wager Mage
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With a Short Strangle, you're going to have a little bit higher of a Probability of Profit (POP) on the trade, whereas with a Short Straddle, your probability of profit is going to be lower.
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Read More »Hey Everyone! In this lesson, I want to compare an options Strangle and an options Straddle and discuss which one is better. First, let’s review the similarities and differences between a Strangle and a Straddle, and then we’ll jump onto the trading platform and go over some examples. There are two ways to enter a Strangle or a Straddle: Go short, where you are selling the spread to open Go long, where you are buying the spread to open Short Strangles & Straddles Similarities In both cases, we like to enter in a market neutral situation. We like to enter both a Strangle and a Straddle when implied volatility is high. Keep in mind, when you’re selling a Short Strangle or Straddle, the risk is theoretically undefined. Differences There are primarily two main differences to be aware of. With a Short Strangle, you’re going to have a little bit higher of a Probability of Profit (POP) on the trade, whereas with a Short Straddle, your probability of profit is going to be lower. Conversely, with a Short Strangle, you have a lower profit potential than with a Short Straddle, which has a higher profit potential. Just remember, there’s always a trade-off between risk and reward. If your probability of profit is higher, then typically your profit potential is lower. And on the flip side, if your probability of profit is lower, then you should have a higher profit potential. Trading Platform Example Let’s go to the trading platform and take a look at an example. We are viewing the TD Ameritrade thinkorswim platform, and have set up two theoretical positions in the Analyze tab. The first position is a Strangle, and the second is a Straddle. The orders are colored red, indicating that they are short (selling to open). Short Strangle We’ve checked the box for the Short Strangle, so you’ll see the visual representation in the graph up above. On the graph you’ll notice a couple of things: We have our price slices set to our break-even points. We have our calendar set to the expiration date of these particular options. By doing that, the platform gives us our probability of profit if we held this trade all the way to expiration, which in this case, is a little over 68%. Now in reality, we are rarely going to hold these trades all the way to expiration, so our probability of making money on this trade in real life trading is much higher than 68%. But, for this example, if you were to hold it all the way to expiration, your probability of profit is just over 68%. If you look at the little box with the teal numbers down in the bottom left hand corner of the graph, you can see that our max potential profit at expiration, is $1,955. Meaning, if price stays within the break-even range, between now and the time that the options expire, we’re going to keep that entire $1,955. Short Straddle Let’s take a look at the Short Straddle for comparison. All I’m doing is unchecking the box next to the Strangle position, and checking the box next to the Straddle position. The visual graph will populate. Instead of a long flat probability of max profit, now we have more of a tent shaped profit diagram. We have to take our price slices and move them to the break-even points to determine our probability of profit. Our probability of profit at expiration went from a little over 68%, down to just over 45%. With a Straddle, we have a smaller range to make a profit in, but you can see the max profit that we can attain on this trade is a little under $8,000, if we pinned right at the short strikes.
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Read More »Short Trading Takeaways When trading Short Strangles and Short Straddles, one is not necessarily better than the other. It just depends on your underlying assumption. If you think the underlying symbol is going to trade in a narrow range, then the short straddle would be the trade of choice. If you prefer a much wider range during your time in the trade, then the short strangle would be your best choice. At NavigationTrading, we definitely trade more Short Strangles than we do Short Straddles, because we prefer the higher probability of success, and we’re okay capping our profits at a lower potential. Both short strangles and straddles have proven to be very profitable over time. It really just comes down to personal preference. Long Strangles & Straddles Now we’re ready to determine the difference between a Long Strangle and a Long Straddle. Similarities Both a Long Strangle and a Long Straddle benefit from a large one directional move. If we put on a Long Strangle or a Long Straddle, we don’t care which direction it moves. We just want to make a large move. Both benefit from implied volatility expansion. The risk on a long straddle and a strangle are both defined. Both have unlimited profit potential. Differences The main difference between the two, is that the probability of profit on a Long Strangle is lower, and it’s a little bit higher on the Long Straddle. Trading Platform Example Let’s go back to the platform to take a look at an example. This time, we’re looking at Amazon, ticker A-M-Z-N. I have the box checked for the Long Strangle, and you can see both of these positions are green, indicating that we’re entering a long position. Long Strangle If we look at the graph of the Long Strangle, you can see, we’ve set our price slices to the break-even points. You can also see that the risk is defined, the max we can lose on Amazon on a Long Strangle is $4,635. Remember with a short strangle, how we wanted price to stay in between the break-even range to make a profit? In the case of a Long Strangle, we need a large directional move in one direction or the other, and we need to be outside of the price slices at the time of expiration to make any money. In this example, we have over a 76% chance of losing money on this trade, and just a 24% chance of making money at expiration.
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Read More »At NavigationTrading, the only time that we will buy Strangles and Straddles, is when we anticipate that implied volatility is going to be increasing and we anticipate a large move to happen fairly quickly. If price moves fairly quickly in one direction or the other, and we can get out before expiration, that’s what we’re looking when trading a Long Strangle or Straddle. It’s a very low probability trade. For you to make any money, the price has to move very quickly, and in a large way. Long Straddle Let’s take a look at the Long Straddle. If we uncheck the Strangle positon, and check the box for the Straddle position to populate the graph. Let’s move our price slices to the break-even points. Now we have a probability just over 59%. If price stays between the break-even points, we’re still losing money over 59% of the time, if the position was held until expiration.
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