What are the three types of prediction?

Types of predictions Inductive. Predictions can be generated inductively. Today it is sunny. ... Deductive. A second type of prediction is generated deductively. So, imagine that I am waiting for a colleague of mine. ... Abductive. There is a third type of prediction, which is different from the previous two.

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The term prediction is fundamental ambiguous and therefore more prone than other terms to all sorts of intellectual stupidities.

Inductive

Predictions can be generated inductively. Today it is sunny. Yesterday it was sunny. The day before yesterday was sunny. And it’s been sunny from the last 10 days. What can I infer, if I just look at? I can predict that tomorrow it will be sunny. Predictions are generated by projecting past occurrences onto the future. Indeed, there might be way more sophisticated predictions than this example. However, no matter how complicated they can be, there is one crucial point that is shared: I don’t need to know or understand why the weather will be sunny – to stick to the example. I just need to see patterns in the past and project them onto the future.

Deductive

A second type of prediction is generated deductively. So, imagine that I am waiting for a colleague of mine. Since I have seen him coming to work, I say to myself: if he has come, then, I will see his laptop on his desk in his office. This is a different type of prediction. My prediction is generated by deriving the logical consequences that follows from stating a hypothesis. This is an important piece of equipment for scientists, because such type of prediction allows us to put our hypothesis to the test. Interestingly, it does not “predict” a future event. It just informs us about the epistemic value of a hypothesis. If we are right, we will see this happening. If we are wrong, we won’t. In this sense such type of prediction informs us about the truthfulness of our ideas, not about the future. It has, in other words, an epistemic function.

Abductive

There is a third type of prediction, which is different from the previous two. This is a type of prediction that like the first type tries to say something about the future. But unlike the first one it is not generated by projecting past occurrences onto the future. For example, if I see that a student is not particularly engaged, often forgets to attend classes, shows very little interest in what he is studying, what I may predict is that this person is going to drop out. And I do that abductively. Indeed, my prediction is still generated by looking at what happened in the past. But unlike the case of inductive predictions, the past provides me with clues, which hint at a possible explanation, in the light of which a certain “future” might appear more plausible than others. Plausibility, not probability, is the discriminating factor here. What is crucial here is that this type of predictions requires understanding. In other words, we need to understand how things “work”. In the example, we need to have some sort of understanding as to why students drop out.

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