What did a $10 bet pay on Rich Strike?

“I haven't bet on horses in a few years, but around 5 o'clock I decided why not,” said Green, a former basketball and field hockey player at Holy Spirit High. Her $10 bet turned into a modest $818 windfall as Rich Strike paid $163.60 to win, $74.20 to place, and $29.40 to show.

inquirer.com - Rich Strike bet nets winner fast $818 - The Philadelphia Inquirer

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Make Your Bookie Cry And Pull The Hair By Generating $23,187

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This year’s Kentucky Derby was a handicapper’s nightmare. Spend hours and hours dissecting videos and studying charts to hear this story. It was just a few minutes to post when Heather Green got to the counter at the Borgata’s race and sportsbook and wanted to bet the No. 20 horse, Ethereal Road. One problem. Ethereal Road was scratched Friday morning. So Green looked up at the betting board and tried to come up with a Plan B. That’s when ticket writer Anita Poma recommended the No. 21, the mostly unknown Rich Strike.

“[To heck with] it,” Green said. “Gimme the 21.”

Rich Strike was the longest shot on the board at 80-1, and somehow won in the biggest Derby upset in over 100 years. The Borgata was typical of sportsbooks around the country when Rich Strike nipped Epicenter at the rail. “The room got very quiet when the race was over,” said Tom Gable, the Borgata’s sportsbook director. Twitter was a graveyard of similar reactions. Rich Strike wasn’t even in the field until Friday morning. But it took a little over two minutes on Saturday to make him immortal. And for Green, an assistant professor at Stockton College in Atlantic City, it turned a spontaneous decision into the laugh of a lifetime. “I haven’t bet on horses in a few years, but around 5 o’clock I decided why not,” said Green, a former basketball and field hockey player at Holy Spirit High. Her $10 bet turned into a modest $818 windfall as Rich Strike paid $163.60 to win, $74.20 to place, and $29.40 to show. But Green’s experience is the perfect example of how all the intense analysis of bloodlines, speed figures, and past performances often don’t matter when you put 20 horses in one race. Green tipped the ticket writer about a hundred bucks (nice) and then chuckled. “I might go over to the roulette wheel and put a hundred on No. 8,” she said.

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How do I calculate odds?

To convert from a probability to odds, divide the probability by one minus that probability. So if the probability is 10% or 0.10 , then the odds are 0.1/0.9 or '1 to 9' or 0.111.

graphpad.com - What is the difference between odds and probability? - FAQ 1466

Chance can be expressed either as a probability or as odds. In most contexts, there is no particular reason to prefer one over the other. Most scientists tend to feel more comfortable thinking about probabilities than odds, but that is a matter of training and custom, not logic.

The distinction is simple:

The probability that an event will occur is the fraction of times you expect to see that event in many trials. Probabilities always range between 0 and 1. The odds are defined as the probability that the event will occur divided by the probability that the event will not occur. A probability of 0 is the same as odds of 0. Probabilities between 0 and 0.5 equal odds less than 1.0. A probability of 0.5 is the same as odds of 1.0. Think of it this way: The probability of flipping a coin to heads is 50%. The odds are “fifty: fifty,” which equals 1.0. As the probability goes up from 0.5 to 1.0, the odds increase from 1.0 to approach infinity. For example, if the probability is 0.75, then the odds are 75:25, three to one, or 3.0. If the odds are high (million to one), the probability is almost 1.00. If the odds are tiny (one to a million), the probability is tiny, almost zero.

How to convert odds to probability and odds to a probability

To convert from a probability to odds, divide the probability by one minus that probability. So if the probability is 10% or 0.10 , then the odds are 0.1/0.9 or ‘1 to 9’ or 0.111. To convert from odds to a probability, divide the odds by one plus the odds. So to convert odds of 1/9 to a probability, divide 1/9 by 10/9 to obtain the probability of 0.10.

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