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National Football League Point spread, over/under, moneyline: NFL odds explained January 29 share facebook twitter reddit link

By Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Expert

Betting on sports is becoming quite the hobby, as more and more states legalize across America. Besides, watching games is way more fun when you’ve got a little skin in the game. As you'd imagine, the NFL is king, drawing the vast majority of the bets placed in the United States every year. But we also understand that betting on sports can be intimidating. There's a lot to learn for a beginner. So, we wanted to help. In this article, you'll find the definition of a point spread, over/under, moneyline and much more, focused on the NFL, as well as simple examples. Consider this your sports betting cheat sheet. It doesn’t matter what you bet — $5, $500 or $5,000 — we’re all trying to do the same thing: have some fun and, hopefully, cash a winning ticket. Let's get started, shall we? Here are some commonly asked questions about betting on the NFL (and sports in general, but we'll concentrate on football for now).

What is a point spread? Why does it usually have a .5 at the end?

The point spread is the expected final score difference between two teams. It is represented as both a negative and positive number; if the spread is 3 points, you'll see that as both -3 and +3. The team that is the favorite to win gets the minus-number (-3); the underdog gets the plus-number (+3). But the actual number itself, ignoring the plus-minus sign, will always be the same for both teams, because, again, that's the expected margin of victory. If Team A is a 3-point favorite over Team B, Team A has to win by more than 3 points to win the bet, or "cover." Team B can win the game outright or lose by one or two points (but no more than that) and they "cover." In this example, if the game lands exactly on a final margin of 3 points, it’s a push, and you get your money back. Neither you nor the book wins the bet. That's why sportsbooks will often add "the hook" (.5) to a point spread — to avoid such ties. So if a point spread is instead 3.5, the favorite has to win by more than 3.5 points (which in reality, means winning by four or more points, of course, since you can't score half a point). Again, the .5 is just there to prevent pushes.

What are those -110 numbers next to the point spread? Why are they sometimes different? Why are the numbers sometimes a +?

That’s the vigorish, or betting juice. It’s effectively the tax you must pay to place a bet and largely how the books make their money. With point spreads, the spread tells you how many points a team needs to win by, while the vigorish tells you how much money you actually win if that bet cashes. Standard "juice" on a point spread or total is -110. These vigorish numbers are all based around $100. A minus-number is what you have to risk to win $100, plus your original bet back. A plus-number is what a $100 bet makes you in profit if that bet wins. -110 means you bet $110 to win $100, in addition to your original bet back, because -110 is a minus-number. +110, on the other hand, would be the reverse, because it's a plus-number — meaning you bet $100 to win $110 and your original bet back. The math works the exact same way with smaller amounts. Most people are far more comfortable betting $10, which is great! In that case, you can just divide the vigorish by 10. -110 would mean you bet $11 to win $10 ($21 total, with your original bet back), and +110 would mean you bet $10 to win $11 in profit. Sometimes, a sportsbook will move the juice to a split like -120/+100, depending on how bets are moving and the relative strength of the two teams. In that scenario, you would bet $12 to win $10 on -120 but would be doubling your money at +100 (bet $10 to win $10). Your opinion might vary, but for most beginning bettors, this isn't a major consideration at first. As you become more sophisticated, you'll start to realize how those numbers really matter, just by virtue of placing your own bets.

What is an over/under?

The expected combined points scored by both teams in a game, also known as the total. When high-powered football teams like the Bills and Chiefs play, the over/under could be as high as 55. When it’s the Dolphins and Jaguars, it could be 38.5. "Over" bets need to surpass the total while "Under" bets must stay lower.

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What is the moneyline?

This is a bet where you simply pick who will win the game, match, event, or whatever we're betting on — but our ol’ friend Mr. Vigorish comes into play on the moneyline, too. Say the Kansas City Chiefs are at home against the Cincinnati Bengals (hey, what a coincidence!). Most bettors will want to wager on the Chiefs to win, because winning the game is a very likely outcome for the better team at home. So a sportsbook will make a bet on Kansas City to simply win the game much more "expensive." A very realistic moneyline price would be Chiefs -350/Bengals +275. Following the same math from above, you would have to lay $35 to win $10 on the Chiefs simply winning the game. A $10 bet on the Bengals to beat the Chiefs would win $27.50. (And, as always, you get your money back every time you win a bet, too.)

What is a prop bet?

It’s a propositional wager that is often but not always based around an individual player. How many passing yards will the quarterback have? Will the running back score a touchdown?

There are also team-based prop wagers. How many points will Team A score? Will Team B get shut out?

And famously, yes, you can bet on what color the Gatorade poured on the coach of the Super Bowl-winning team will be each year. God bless betting. There’s a lot of candy in the candy store when it comes to prop bets. They are very, very popular.

What is a parlay?

Speaking of popular ways to bet: parlays.

Parlays are bets where you combine wagers on multiple games into one bigger bet (with a minimum of two "legs," or bets, needed for a parlay) for a bigger payday, but where you must win all those wagers to get paid. Most people bet a little to win a lot on parlays. You can load your parlay with as many bets as you want, but understand that the more bets you add, the more likely you are to lose.

A standard, two-team parlay pays around +260.

Three-teamers pay +600.

Four-teamers pay around +1300.

And of course, some people really swing for the fences, betting, say, a 13-leg parlay on an NFL Sunday to try to turn $10 into $10,000. I'm not a fan of these lottery tickets myself, but there's no denying that they give people a lot to root for. Just remember — if you lose any of the legs, the parlay is dead.

What is a teaser?

A teaser is a multi-team bet that allows you to move each individual wager by 6, 6.5 or 7 points. Standard teasers are two legs and six points per leg, but you can realistically have as many legs as you want. Like a parlay, every leg must win to cash the teaser. As an example, you could tease the Chiefs, who are 7.5-favorites, down to 1.5, as well as the 49ers from 3.5-point underdogs up to 9.5, which seems decently enticing. It’s a way for players to maximize money by maximizing betting math. On that note …

What are "key numbers"?

This is a little more nuanced, but it's an interesting wrinkle to keep in the back of your mind: Key numbers are the most common final margins of victory, almost always used in football. The most important key numbers are 3 and 7, because those are the respective values of a field goal and touchdown (plus the extra point). Many, many NFL games are decided by either 3 or 7 points specifically. What you'll start to notice, then, is that many point spreads are structured roughly around a team being 3- or 7-point favorites. For much of the 2022 NFL Conference Championship week, the Chiefs were 7-point favorites, before so many bets came in on Kansas City that the Chiefs moved to 7.5. That might seem minor, but that .5 can be the difference between just getting your money back on a push when Kansas City wins 31-24 or cashing a winning ticket. Key numbers are something to remember when betting a teaser as well. You really want to strive to tease your bets "through" key numbers, as we did above by teasing the Chiefs down through both 7 and 3, and teasing the Niners up through 7.

What is a futures bet?

A wager on a team to win a division, conference or championship. You can make these bets all year round, and the odds will fluctuate based on a team’s perception and a sportsbook’s liability (a fancy way of saying how much money they stand to lose based on certain results, given how much money people have bet on those results). The best teams have the lowest odds, while longer shots have bigger payouts. For example, the Chiefs are currently +125 ($10 wins $12.50) to win the Super Bowl. The Rams are +200, the 49ers +450 and Bengals +750. Cincinnati was +10000 at one point this season, meaning just a $10 bet placed then would cash out for $1,010 if the Bengals do win it all.

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Sportsbooks also have player futures for markets like MVP, Rookie of the Year and more.

What is "buying points"? Should I ever do it?

Buying points (or half-points) allows you to move a point spread in your favor, but you must pay extra juice. It can cost 15 to 20 cents (so -110 becomes -125 or -130) to move a half point, and that juice adds up quickly. I never buy full points but will occasionally buy +6.5 up to +7 or -7.5 down to -7, because of the key number factor we discussed above. That’s how I roll. It’s hard enough to beat -110 in this racket.

Can I bet during a game?

Yes. This is called live betting or in-game wagering. Sportsbooks like FOX Bet allow you to bet basically any time during a game. If Team A is beating Team B 14-0 with six minutes in the first quarter, you’re offered a brand-new point spread at that exact time. And if Team B was a 4-point underdog at kickoff, you could potentially bet the same team but at +10 or +10.5 on the live line. These lines and point spreads are based off of predictive algorithms, so there are plenty of times inside a game where you can pick off good numbers.

Is it true that sportsbook set lines to try to get 50% of bets on either side?

In theory, yes, but not necessarily. Sportsbooks are mostly trying to balance the ledger with money, not individual bets, and people bet vastly different amounts. One $1,000 bet on Team A balances out ten $100 bets on Team B. Money balance is more important than ticket balance. Pull out that fact the next time you're at a bar, and you'll sound like the smartest person in the room.

Do I have to bet a lot?

Absolutely not.

Bet what makes you comfortable, and stay within your means. Most professional bettors implement very disciplined bankroll management principles, and they’ll bet no more than between 2% and 5% of their entire roll on a game. So if you set aside $1,000 to gamble with for a football season, a wise guy will tell you that your individual bets should roughly range from $20 to $50 a game. But if you just want to bet $5 on a Sunday with the understanding you are OK to potentially risk no more than $100 total all season long, that's great, too — especially since you're going to win some of those bets, after all.

What's the easiest way to bet on games for a beginner?

Start with straight bets. There’s no reason to go diving into the parlay party until you understand the basics of picking against the spread or betting on the over/under. Focusing and specializing on one sport or a specific group of teams is a great way to get started. Wagering around your favorite NFL team (or a hated rival) is a good first step. Beyond the NFL, college basketball is a great sport, because there are so many teams and the sportsbooks can’t possibly keep up on all 350-plus teams. Find a conference, study it and bet those games.

What's the one piece of advice you'd give someone who's new to making bets?

Do your homework and don’t drink a lot of juice!

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He'll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot. Get more from National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more

foxsports.com - Point spread, over/under, moneyline: NFL odds explained | FOX Sports

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