Wager Mage
Wager Mage
Photo: Erica Gaia
So… if the forecaster knows precipitation is sure to occur ( confidence is 100% ), he/she is expressing how much of the area will receive measurable rain.
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Read More »The video, which began with the question, "What's something you found out late in life that you should have known earlier but just didn't?", went on to claim that, "A 30% chance of rain doesn’t mean that there’s a… 30% chance that it might rain that day. Instead, it means there’s a 100% chance it will rain, but said precipitation will only cover 30% of a given area." The response was...100% confusion, skepticism, and everything in between! Everything from, "I found that out...right now" to "I thought it was how heavy the rain was....like 100% max rain and 30% was drizzle" all the way to "I'm a meteorologist and this isn't true." Whew! This video and recent research from the University of Georgia suggested that the public isn't alone in their mixed views of the concept of Probability of Precipitation (PoP)...even some meteorologists have different viewpoints! So much so, that some broadcast meteorologists don't even use percentages in their forecasts to the public anymore. To better understand this, let's take a deeper look at the meaning of PoP. The National Weather Service defines PoP in the following way: PoP = C x A where "C" = the confidence that precipitation will occur somewhere in the forecast area, and where "A" = the percent of the area that will receive measureable precipitation, if it occurs at all. So… if the forecaster knows precipitation is sure to occur ( confidence is 100% ), he/she is expressing how much of the area will receive measurable rain. ( PoP = "C" x "A" or "1" times ".4" which equals .4 or 40%.). Another way to explain this, is that if there is a 50% chance of rain in 80% of a given area, there is a 40% PoP. This means that PoP is an expression of both confidence and area. If a forecaster is only 50% certain that rain will occur over 90% of the area, then the PoP is 45% (because POP in this instance would equal 0.5 x 0.8).
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