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What does a +200 moneyline mean?

Odds with a plus sign are underdog bets. Plus odds tell you how much profit you will get on a $100 bet. A $100 bet with +200 odds nets you $200 profit plus your original $100 bet. If you bet $20, you would profit $40. For the rare even money odds, those can be listed as -100, +100 or EV.

theathletic.com - Understanding sports betting odds and how to read them - The Athletic

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For newcomers to sports betting, there are a few things on a bet sheet or an app that will be foreign. One of the most important things to understand is how betting odds work and what they mean. To start, odds are presented in a few different ways and the numbers mean drastically different things depending on what system the sportsbook is using. There are three common ways for odds to be presented: American odds, fractional odds, and decimal odds.

American odds

American odds are a bit confusing on their face. They aren’t as straight-forward as decimal or fractional odds. American odds are based around $100, but how they relate to $100 varies depending on whether the bet is favored or not. For favored bets, the bet odds will start with a negative number and they tell you how much you need to bet to win $100. If the odds are -110, a common number for a bet involving a spread, you would need to bet $110 to win $100. If your odds are -200, you would need to bet $200 to win $100. Of course, bets don’t have to be that size, but that proportion will scale up or down. A $10 bet with -200 odds would give you $5 plus your original $10 bet back. Odds with a plus sign are underdog bets. Plus odds tell you how much profit you will get on a $100 bet. A $100 bet with +200 odds nets you $200 profit plus your original $100 bet. If you bet $20, you would profit $40. For the rare even money odds, those can be listed as -100, +100 or EV.

Let’s take a look at how this works for a real game.

TEAM Spread Total Moneyline Boston Celtics -6 -110 O 52 -110 -360 Los Angeles Lakers +6 -110 U 52 -110 +280 In this game, both the Celtics and Lakers are -110 if you bet them against the spread. The same goes for either side of the total (over/under). The moneyline is where it differs. A $250 bet on the Celtics on the moneyline, meaning if they win the game by any margin the bet wins, would win $100 (plus a return of the original $250 bet). A $25 bet would win $10. The Lakers are the underdog so they have plus odds. A $100 bet would win $280, in addition to the original $100 bet.

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Fractional odds

Decimal and fractional odds are more common outside the United States, but can be found in some American sportsbooks as well. Both have similar principles. Fractional odds are, as the name indicates, displayed as fractions, like 3-1 or 7-4. Multiplying a bet amount by the fraction, will show the profit. Betting $10 with 3-1 odds will give you a $30 profit plus your $10 back. Betting $10 with 7-4 odds would net $17.50 plus the original $10. Multiply the $10 by the numerator, which in this case is seven, then divide by the denominator, which is four. That gives you 70 divided by four, or 17.50. Favorite bets will have a denominator larger than the numerator such as 1-2 or 2-5. Underdog bets will have the numerator bigger than the denominator, as in the examples above. In America, fractional odds are most commonly used in futures betting where almost all the odds have a denominator of 1, making them easier to understand.

Decimal odds

Decimal odds are shown as one number, which is the amount a winning bet would collect on a $1 bet. If the odds are listed as 6, a winning bet would receive $5 profit and the original $1 bet. Anything between 1 and 2 is a favorite bet and 2 is an even money bet. These are more commonly used outside the US when the fractions used in fractional odds get a bit ugly. For example, it’s fairly common to see American odds of -115, but that converts to 20-23 in fractional odds. Quick, do the math of the return on a $10 bet with 20-23 odds. Ew. The decimal odds would be listed at 1.87, which would make for much easier math on this $10 bet. Multiply the odds by the bet and you get the return that would include the original bet. Much easier, right? The return would be $18.70. This is a case where decimal odds can be better.

Converting odds to a break-even percentage

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However, they are presented, being able to convert your odds into a break-even percentage is a crucial part of understanding what is actually a good bet. If the odds are +200 that means the book is giving you the odds that the bet will come in one-third of the time. If you think the likelihood is higher than that, it is a good bet. This is similar to pot odds in poker, for example. Think of a coin flip. You know you know have a one-in-two chance of heads coming up. If you are given odds better than one-in-two, it’s a good bet. Typically you won’t know the exact odds because sporting events aren’t that predictable, but this is a key principle to keep in mind when evaluating a bet, especially on a moneyline. This principle can be applied if you have a projection model, like the Slingshot model for predicting NCAA men’s basketball tournament upsets. Slingshot gives a percentage chance of an upset happening. That percentage can be compared to moneyline odds, once you convert the odds to a percentage. If the model thinks the odds are significantly better than what the bet is offering, and you trust the model, this can be a useful tool in whether to decide to place a bet or not.

theathletic.com - Understanding sports betting odds and how to read them - The Athletic

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