Wager Mage
Photo: Joe Calomeni
You may have come across the term “over 1.5 goals” or “under 1.5 goals,” but what exactly do these mean? Basically, it is a market where you can bet on whether the total number of goals in a football match will be above 1.5 goals (i.e. 2 goals or more) or less than 1.5 goals (i.e. 0 or 1 goals).
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Read More »The most important thing is to always look for value – i.e. where the odds are higher than they should be, therefore presenting you with an edge over the bookie/betting market. Here we look at some strategies that can provide you with an edge when betting on the over/under 1.5 goals market. – Exploit bookie mistakes – bookies price up matches based on algorithms but then don’t change their models in-play, even when goals are scored that change the way games are played. Early goals for example can make games much more open than expected. A tool that takes advantage of this weakness is the – bookies price up matches based on algorithms but then don’t change their models in-play, even when goals are scored that change the way games are played. Early goals for example can make games much more open than expected. A tool that takes advantage of this weakness is the Trade on Sports HT Overs Bot , which identifies over 1.5 goal opportunities based on the HT score and instances where there is an over 80% chance of another goal being scored in a game. It made over £6,000 profit in a live trial here on the site, one of the best returns from any football system we have tested. – Injured Strikers – if one or even both of the teams have their main strikers out injured, then it is possible they will struggle for goals, and so backing the under 1.5 goals could provide value. – Defenders missing – alternatively, if the sides have key defenders missing, they may struggle to keep goals out and it could be a wise option to back over 1.5 goals. – Late-stage tournaments – in international football tournaments such as the Euros and World Cups, goals have become very hard to come by, particularly in the latter stages. Teams are understandably in a mindset where they don’t want to lose or give anything away cheaply, so often “shut up shop” when it gets to the knock-out stages. So it can pay to look at backing the under 1.5 goals in such instances. – Mismatches – people often think that when there is a team at the top of the table playing one towards the bottom, it will be a rout. Interestingly however, the statistics don’t back this up and these games are not always thrashings. It can be a good idea to pay close attention to sides that are good defensively, but struggle to score goals themselves and hence are toward the bottom end of the table. They can be good value to back in the unders market.
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Read More »As well as betting on the over/under 1.5 goals, there is also the possibility of trading the market by using an exchange such as Betfair. There is usually excellent liquidity on Betfair in the over/under markets, so they are popular ones to trade.
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