What is a spread of 12.5 mean?

betsmart.co - What does Cover the Spread Mean? - BetSmart.co

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Make Your Bookie Cry And Pull The Hair By Generating $23,187

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The point spread is an estimate of the final point difference between the teams in an event. A handicap of the point spread value is given to the favourite team so bettors can choose sides at equal odds. “Cover the spread” means that a favourite wins an event with the handicap taken into account or the underdog wins with additional points. The spread goes beyond classifying a team as the favourite or the underdog and assigns a numerical value to the perceived difference between teams. Take a matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and the Charlotte Bobcats. The Spurs are clearly favoured to win as they are a much stronger team, making betting on the matchup lackluster at best. But what if the Bobcats were given an extra 4 points? A few more people would bet on the Bobcats. What about 12? Sportsbooks set a spread at a value which accurately represents the perceived difference in value between the teams.

Say the sportsbook set the line at:

San Antonio Spurs -12.5 1.91

Charlotte Bobcats +12.5 1.91

Oddsmakers have assigned a “point spread” to the matchup, which basically gives the underdog team an artificial “head start”. The Point Spread is +12.5 for Charlotte, which means that when they start the matchup and the real score is 0-0, Charlotte will actually be leading 12.5-0 for the purposes of picking a winner. Say at the end of the matchup, the real score is Charlotte 100 and San Antonio 109. If you picked San Antonio on the moneyline, you would have picked correctly because they won the matchup.

But with the point spread, it’s a different story.

Because the Bobcats started with an artificial 12.5 point lead, it gets added to their real score at the end of the game. Adding the 12.5 points to their real score of 100 gives them an adjusted score of 112.5, which is now better than the Spur’s real score of 109! In this scenario, the Charlotte Bobcats are said to have covered the spread, meaning that they won the game with their head start. On the other hand, if the final score at the end of the game is Charlotte 80 and San Antonio 98, then Charlotte’s adjusted score is 92.5 (12.5-point head start plus a real score of 80). However, even with the head start, Charlotte’s adjusted score (92.5) is less than San Antonio’s real score of 98.

This time, the San Antonio Spurs have covered the spread.

Of course, if the Charlotte Bobcats won the matchup outright, then they automatically cover the spread. While sometimes a source of confusion for people new to making picks, all the point spread really does is makes picking either team equally attractive!

Why Do Some Spreads End In .5?

There is no such thing as a half point in sports, but there is in sports betting! The half point ensures that a side will win and that the match will not end in a push, where the spread equals the actual difference in points between the two teams. In a push all bettors get their money back, which is no good for the oddsmaker! Half points also give oddsmakers more control over lines, allowing them to set more specific values.

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How do you calculate odds?

To convert from a probability to odds, divide the probability by one minus that probability. So if the probability is 10% or 0.10 , then the odds are 0.1/0.9 or '1 to 9' or 0.111.

graphpad.com - What is the difference between odds and probability? - FAQ 1466

Chance can be expressed either as a probability or as odds. In most contexts, there is no particular reason to prefer one over the other. Most scientists tend to feel more comfortable thinking about probabilities than odds, but that is a matter of training and custom, not logic.

The distinction is simple:

The probability that an event will occur is the fraction of times you expect to see that event in many trials. Probabilities always range between 0 and 1. The odds are defined as the probability that the event will occur divided by the probability that the event will not occur. A probability of 0 is the same as odds of 0. Probabilities between 0 and 0.5 equal odds less than 1.0. A probability of 0.5 is the same as odds of 1.0. Think of it this way: The probability of flipping a coin to heads is 50%. The odds are “fifty: fifty,” which equals 1.0. As the probability goes up from 0.5 to 1.0, the odds increase from 1.0 to approach infinity. For example, if the probability is 0.75, then the odds are 75:25, three to one, or 3.0. If the odds are high (million to one), the probability is almost 1.00. If the odds are tiny (one to a million), the probability is tiny, almost zero.

How to convert odds to probability and odds to a probability

To convert from a probability to odds, divide the probability by one minus that probability. So if the probability is 10% or 0.10 , then the odds are 0.1/0.9 or ‘1 to 9’ or 0.111. To convert from odds to a probability, divide the odds by one plus the odds. So to convert odds of 1/9 to a probability, divide 1/9 by 10/9 to obtain the probability of 0.10.

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