Wager Mage
Photo: Pratikxox
According to the video, if you ask people to randomly pick any one integer between 1 and 10 (both inclusive), people are more likely to choose 7.
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Read More »Now, going into my personal guess, it seems it’s a great triumph for someone who never studied the human brain. The three prime numbers of the list (which constitute only 33% of the total) have been chosen by almost 46% of the sample space. Now, it’s time to talk about where the survey is messing up with the given theory. First of all, 3 is not singly the runners up- it shares the second position with 6 (which is an even number) and our theory has no explanation for this. The second big blow comes if we separately observe the even numbers. It can be seen that the even numbers get almost 42% choices which is not very far away from the midpoint of 50%. So, this hypothesis of eliminating the even numbers seems to be a bit bizarre. But, again, we must remember that our sample space was not big enough to yield extremely precise results. Last but not the least, I calculated the average of the 55 choices and it came to be around 5.49, which is insanely close to the ideal expectation of 5.50, a result, which relies solely on the assumption that all the choices are equally probable. I can’t come up with any concrete explanation for this beautiful accuracy. Maybe, we can try to justify ourselves by saying things like the super majority of 7 was somewhat balanced by the second best performance of 3 and the votes for 4 and 5 balance that of 6 and so on. But, this justification looks very weak and fragile.
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