Wager Mage
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Why does heads always win?

The reason: the side with Lincoln's head on it is a bit heavier than the flip side, causing the coin's center of mass to lie slightly toward heads. The spinning coin tends to fall toward the heavier side more often, leading to a pronounced number of extra “tails” results when it finally comes to rest.

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Posted from Dan Lewis' fantastic Now I Know newsletter. Subscribe here or follow him on Twitter. Imagine you’re at a bar and another patron offers you the following wager. He’s going to flip a coin — a standard U.S. penny like the ones seen above — a dozen or so times. If it comes up heads more often than tails, he’ll pay you $20. If it comes up tails more than heads, you pay him the same. There are no hidden tricks. It’s a fair bet — safe to take, if you’re looking for a 50/50 chance. Now, imagine the same offer, except that instead of flipping the coin, the other patron tells you he’s going to spin it. In fact, he’ll even let you provide the penny, just to guarantee there is no funny business. Twenty-five spins and if it comes up heads more often than tails, he’ll give you $20 again. But if tails comes up more often, you owe him $20.

Fair bet? Not if Persi Diaconis is right.

Diaconis is a professor of mathematics and statistics at Stanford University and, formerly, a professional magician. While his claim to fame is determining how many times a deck of cards must be shuffled in order to give a mathematically random result (it’s either five or seven, depending on your criteria), he’s also dabbled in the world of coin games. What he and his fellow researchers discovered (here’s a PDF of their paper) is that most games of chance involving coins aren’t as even as you’d think. For example, even the 50/50 coin toss really isn’t 50/50 — it’s closer to 51/49, biased toward whatever side was up when the coin was thrown into the air. But more incredibly, as reported by Science News, spinning a penny, in this case one with the Lincoln Memorial on the back, gives even more pronounced odds — the penny will land tails side up roughly 80 percent of the time. The reason: the side with Lincoln’s head on it is a bit heavier than the flip side, causing the coin’s center of mass to lie slightly toward heads. The spinning coin tends to fall toward the heavier side more often, leading to a pronounced number of extra “tails” results when it finally comes to rest. Because the coins typically pick up dirt and oils over time, trying the experiment at home may not yield such a large percentage of “tails” over “heads” — but a relatively new coin should still give you noticeable results.

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How do police seize Bitcoin?

After meeting probable-cause and burden-of-proof requirements, law enforcement can get seizure warrants for any illicit funds that eventually land on compliant exchanges—and many funds eventually do.

But how exactly does seizing cryptocurrency work?

What happens first when the cryptocurrency is stolen?

Skilled criminals know they need to make dirty money clean. Money laundering is the age-old act of making the capital gained from illegal activity look as if it has no connection to the crime itself, so that the money can then be used freely. “I’d say the laundering is more sophisticated than the hacks themselves,” Christopher Janczewski, who was a lead case agent at the IRS specializing in cryptocurrency cases, told MIT Technology Review previously. More than $8.6 billion was successfully laundered through cryptocurrency in 2021. Unique among nations, North Korea has used theft of cryptocurrency as a means to fund its financially isolated regime. Pyongyang uses cryptocurrency to get around the restrictions imposed upon it and pay for anything from weapons to luxuries. The tactics are always evolving. A “peel chain” moves cryptocurrency through thousands of transactions to obfuscate the source and destination. “Chain hopping” crosses blockchains and currencies. “Cryptocurrency mixers” take transactions from anyone and then pay out in different wallets or even different currencies in an effort to disconnect the deposits and withdrawals.

All of this is meant to throw off investigators.

How does law enforcement follow the money?

The US government has invested significantly in blockchain surveillance and analysis tools.

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