Why is a 2 goal lead the worst?

Concept. The underlying concept is that, a team which is leading 2–0 will be complacent and have a 'false sense of security' in their lead. If the trailing team then scores to make it 2–1, the leading team can panic and concede further, resulting in a draw, or even a win for the other team.

en.wikipedia.org - 2–0 lead is the worst lead - Wikipedia

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"2–0 lead is the worst lead" is a cliché[1] used in sporting contests,[2][3] to describe the situation in which one team is leading by a score of 2–0, leading to them becoming complacent.[4] The phrase is most common in association football, where it is sometimes applied only to the scoreline at half-time. It is sometimes also encountered in other sports where 2–0 is a moderately large lead, such as ice hockey.

Concept [ edit ]

The underlying concept is that, a team which is leading 2–0 will be complacent[5] and have a 'false sense of security' in their lead.[6] If the trailing team then scores to make it 2–1, the leading team can panic and concede further, resulting in a draw, or even a win for the other team. In contrast, a team which is leading 1–0 will tend to concentrate and play with intensity to protect or extend their narrow lead, whilst teams leading by three or more goals have a sufficiently large buffer that comebacks are unlikely. The cliché may be invoked by coaches to encourage their players to maintain effort levels after obtaining a two-goal lead.[7] It can also be used in broadcasting, such as by a commentator or studio pundit, to suggest that the final result is still in doubt, thereby maintaining audience interest in a game. There is little evidence that 2–0 is the worst lead in practice. In association football, a team leading 2–0 at half-time only goes on to lose the game in about 2% of cases.[8] In ice hockey, statistics show that if a team builds a two-goal advantage, they go on to win the game in the majority of instances, and that a one-goal lead is far more dangerous.[9] As a result, the cliché is often used in full knowledge that 2–0 is not in fact the worst possible lead.[10][11]

Examples of usage [ edit ]

The cliché was popularized by Czech football coach and television commentator Josef Csaplár in the Czech football community. His use of the term suggested that a 2–0 half-time lead could only end in a defeat and the cliché is known in the Czech Republic as Csaplár's trap (Czech: Csaplárova past).[12][13] In Serbia, the cliché is known for being used by manager and former player Milan Živadinović.[14] The cliché was also used by Australian former player and TV broadcaster Johnny Warren.[15] Television pundit and former England international footballer Gary Lineker questioned the cliché's veracity during a 2016 match between Bournemouth and Liverpool while the latter were 2–0 ahead.[16] On that occasion, Liverpool did in fact surrender the lead to lose 4–3.[17]

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