Wager Mage
Photo: Julia M Cameron
Players have always used the treble 19 bed for a 'cover shot' when the treble 20 is blocked by their first or second darts, especially if their darts tend to enter the board at a steep angle.
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Read More »Christopher Kempf, the statistical analyst of the PDC, takes a look at the risk and reward of cover shots. Rob Cross produced a stunning cover shot performance at the 2017 bwin Grand Slam of Darts, hitting the treble 19 bed with a staggering 55% accuracy. This was almost unprecedented not only for his sharp-shooting but also for the high rate at which he switched away from the treble 20, with almost one third of his darts at trebles not thrown at the 60 bed. Less than a year later, Michael van Gerwen improved on that percentage in the 2018 Unibet Premier League Play-Offs, hitting 52 treble 19s with 85 darts (61%), hitting nine consecutive treble 19s (when attempted) on two separate occasions. Treble switching, to the extent that it is practiced today, is a relatively new phenomenon in darts, and never before have we seen so many players scoring so many points on the green sisal. Players have always used the treble 19 bed for a ‘cover shot’ when the treble 20 is blocked by their first or second darts, especially if their darts tend to enter the board at a steep angle. But more darts than ever before are being thrown at the green bed, and it isn't because the number of blockers has dramatically increased. On the contrary, it is increasingly common to see many darts thrown at treble 19 even when the first dart leaves the treble 20 relatively open. Van Gerwen and Peter Wright throw darts that stick out of the board at a similar angle, yet the Dutchman throws nearly four times as many darts at treble 19 than Wright.
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Read More »It is especially small compared to the average score of treble 18 (30.97, 2.13 points less than treble 19), suggesting a disadvantage of switching to treble 18 with the third dart unless absolutely necessary, and of treble 17 (28.55, 2.42 points less than treble 18). Something else must explain the relatively strong performance of treble 19.
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Read More »Because the treble 19 ‘cover shot’ has such a high initial probability of success, moreover, the likelihood of following a second-dart treble with a third, for a 134 or a 174, is especially high. Regardless of what causes the unusually high accuracy of players throwing for treble 19, several professionals have recognised that the trade-off of risking a lower per-dart score for a higher probability of hitting a treble works in their favour if they can hit treble 19s at a higher rate than their opponent. No man has taken greater advantage of this than Van Gerwen, who has found his target with almost every other dart he has thrown at treble 19 this year (49.2%). His per-dart score of 36.76 is higher even than the corresponding average scores of most other professionals throwing at treble 20. This advantage often means that Van Gerwen will often throw at treble 19 even when the treble 20 bed is not obscured, giving him one of the highest switch probabilities of any player in the PDC. The exact rationale for switching in any given moment is known only to Van Gerwen himself, but the combination of frequently switching to treble 19 and hitting it with astonishing accuracy has made him a relentless and versatile scorer. % of darts not thrown at treble 20, first 9 darts of each leg (PDC top 16):
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